Increasing staffing constraints and turnaround-time pressures in Prior authorization (PA) have led to increasing automation of decision systems to support PA review. Evaluating fairness in such systems poses unique challenges because legitimate clinical guidelines and medical necessity criteria often differ across demographic groups, making parity in approval rates an inappropriate fairness metric. We propose a fairness evaluation framework for prior authorization models based on model error rates rather than approval outcomes. Using 7,166 human-reviewed cases spanning 27 medical necessity guidelines, we assessed consistency in sex, age, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Our evaluation combined error-rate comparisons, tolerance-band analysis with a predefined ±5 percentage-point margin, statistical power evaluation, and protocol-controlled logistic regression. Across most demographics, model error rates were consistent, and confidence intervals fell within the predefined tolerance band, indicating no meaningful performance differences. For race/ethnicity, point estimates remain small, but subgroup sample sizes were limited, resulting in wide confidence intervals and underpowered tests, with inconclusive evidence within the dataset we explored. These findings illustrate a rigorous and regulator-aligned approach to fairness evaluation in administrative healthcare AI systems.
Figures & tables
Attr.
Groups
Error rates
Δ
NHST (z, p)
95% CI
CI ∈δ
Power
Sex
F, M
5.8%, 6.3%
−0.5
−0.91,0.364
[−1.74,0.65]
Yes
1.00
Age
A, O
5.8%, 6.3%
−0.5
−0.79,0.429
[−1.69,0.71]
Yes
1.00
Race
NW, W
6.7%, 7.3%
−0.6
−0.26,0.798
[−4.82,3.68]
Yes
0.51
SES
L, H
5.9%, 5.7%
+0.1
+0.10,0.920
[−2.55,2.83]
Yes
0.88
Table 1: ∣ Unadjusted evaluation. Subgroup error-rate comparisons and unadjusted fairness evaluation across protected attributes. The table reports group error rates, absolute error-rate difference ( Δ ), z-statistics, and p-values for NHST, 95% confidence intervals (CI) for error rate difference, inclusion within a predefined tolerance band ( δ = ± 5pp), and statistical power for detecting δ with α=0.05 . All observed disparities are small, non-significant, and the CI remains within the tolerance threshold. Attribute groups: Female (F), Male (M), Adult (A), Older (O), Non-white (NW), White (W), Low SES (L), High SES (H)
Attr.
Adj. Set
Adj. Δ
95% CI
CI ∈δ
Evi. Ratio (Strength)
Sex
Protocol + Race
+0.52
[−0.74,1.69]
Yes
24% (Strong evidence)
Protocol + Age
+0.51
[−0.64,1.57]
Yes
22% (Strong evidence)
Protocol + SES
+0.16
[−1.11,1.51]
Yes
26% (Strong evidence)
Race
Protocol + Sex
+0.28
[−4.72,5.50]
No
102% (Weak evidence)
Protocol + Age
+0.11
[−5.01,5.69]
No
107% (Weak evidence)
Protocol + SES
−0.14
[−5.79,4.67]
No
105% (Weak evidence)
Table 2: ∣ Adjusted evaluation. Adjusted error-rate disparities across protected attributes after controlling for protocol and additional demographic covariates. The table reports adjusted risk differences (percentage points), 95% bootstrap confidence intervals (CI), inclusion within the predefined operational tolerance band ( δ=± 5pp), the Evidence Ratio (CI width relative to δ ), and qualitative evidence strength. Across sex, age, and SES, adjusted disparities are small and fully contained within the tolerance threshold with strong to moderate precision; race-adjusted comparisons exhibit wider intervals due to limited sample size and are therefore less conclusive
Appendix figures & tables6 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
Attr.
Category
Frequency (%)
Sex
Female
3,961 (55.3%)
Male
2,544 (35.5%)
Ignored
0 (0.0%)
Missing
661 (9.2%)
Age group
22–50 (Adult)
2,241 (31.3%)
51+ (Older)
4,545 (63.4%)
Appendix
Table 3: ∣ Demographic characteristics. Distribution of protected attributes extracted from clinical in the reviewed prior authorization cases ( N=7,166 )
Protocol Characteristic
Value
Number of distinct protocols
27
Median cases per protocol (IQR)
99 (63–339)
Percentage of cases in top 5 protocols
62.8%
Appendix
Table 4: ∣ Protocol distribution. Aggregated payer protocol representation in the reviewed prior authorization cases ( N=7,166 )
Attr.
Protocols with Overlap
Valid Protocols
Overlap Rate
Sex
27
27
100.0%
Age group
25
27
92.6%
Race / Ethnicity
21
24
87.5%
SES / Payer
23
26
88.5%
Appendix
Table 5: ∣ Protocol overlap. The table reports the number of protocols containing at least one case from each comparison group for a given attribute after excluding missing values. High overlap rates indicate that most protocols include representation from both groups, supporting identifiability of within-protocol comparisons in adjusted analyses.
Review Outcome
Frequency (%)
Correct approval
2,901 (40.5%)
False approval
230 (3.2%)
Correct escalation
3,832 (53.5%)
Unnecessary escalation
203 (2.8%)
Appendix
Table 6: ∣ Outcome distribution. Human review distribution in the reviewed prior authorization cases
Attr.
Adj. Set
Adj. Δ
95% CI
CI ∈δ
Evi. Ratio (Strength)
Sex
Protocol
+0.49
[−0.69,1.66]
Yes
23% (Strong evidence)
Race
+0.40
[−2.93,3.67]
Yes
66% (Moderate evidence)
Age
+0.61
[−0.63,1.88]
Yes
25% (Strong evidence)
SES
+0.80
[−1.16,2.96]
Yes
41% (Strong evidence)
Race
Protocol
+0.18
[−5.37,4.80]
No
102% (Weak evidence)
Sex
+1.04
[−3.22,4.72]
Yes
79% (Moderate evidence)
Appendix
Table 7: ∣ Sensitivity analysis. Single-Factor adjusted error-Rate disparities across protected attributes after controlling for demographic attributes or protocol. The table reports adjusted risk differences (percentage points), 95% bootstrap confidence intervals (CI), inclusion within the predefined operational tolerance band ( δ=± 5pp), the Evidence Ratio (CI width relative to δ ), and qualitative evidence strength. Across race, sex, age, and SES, adjusted disparities are mostly small and contained within the tolerance threshold with strong to moderate precision; on a few occasions, we obtain inconclusive results
Attr.
Adj. Set
Adj. Δ
95% CI
CI ∈δ
Evi. Ratio (Strength)
Sex
Protocol + Race
+0.23
[−3.30,3.94]
Yes
72% (Moderate evidence)
Protocol + Age
+0.58
[−0.60,1.90]
Yes
25% (Strong evidence)
Protocol + SES
+0.58
[−1.71,3.00]
Yes
47% (Strong evidence)
Race
Protocol + Sex
+1.00
[−4.53,5.19]
No
97% (Weak evidence)
Protocol + Age
+0.12
[−5.38,5.08]
No
105% (Weak evidence)
Protocol + SES
−3.91
[−12.70,4.18]
No
169% (Weak evidence)
Appendix
Table 8: ∣ Adjusted evaluation with “Unknown”. Adjusted error-rate disparities across protected attributes after controlling for protocol and additional demographic covariates (Complete-case covariates; no “Unknown” levels). The table reports adjusted risk differences (percentage points), 95% bootstrap confidence intervals (CI), inclusion within the predefined operational tolerance band ( δ=± 5pp), the Evidence Ratio (CI width relative to δ ), and qualitative evidence strength. Across sex, age, and SES, adjusted disparities are small and fully contained within the tolerance threshold with strong to moderate precision; race-adjusted comparisons (and cases where we use race as covariates) exhibit wider intervals due to limited sample size and are therefore less conclusive
Algorithmic fairness studies how automated decisions distribute errors, opportunities, and harms across groups, and how to measure and reduce disparities.
Prior authorization remains one of the most burdensome administrative processes in U.S. healthcare, consuming billions of dollars and thousands of physician hours each year. While large language models have shown promise across clinical text tasks, their ability to produce submission-ready prior authorization letters has received only limited attention, with existing work confined to single-case demonstrations rather than structured multi-scenario evaluation. We assessed three commercially available LLMs (GPT-4o, Claude Sonnet 4.5, and Gemini 2.5 Pro) across 45 physician-validated synthetic scenarios spanning rheumatology, psychiatry, oncology, cardiology, and orthopedics. All three models generated letters with strong clinical content: accurate diagnoses, well-structured medical necessity arguments, and thorough step therapy documentation. However, a secondary analysis of real-world administrative requirements revealed consistent gaps that clinical scoring alone did not capture, including absent billing codes, missing authorization duration requests, and inadequate follow-up plans. These findings reframe the question: the challenge for clinical deployment is not whether LLMs can write clinically adequate letters, but whether the systems built around them can supply the administrative precision that payer workflows require.
Public institutions increasingly procure AI systems whose design they cannot inspect or change. In higher education, proprietary Early Warning Systems (EWS) leave colleges with few options beyond adjusting model outputs to address inequity. This raises the question of how fairness work is coordinated among vendors, institutions, advisors, and students with unequal power to change these systems? Using student records from a public college in Ontario, Canada, we evaluate six post-hoc fairness interventions on a research EWS under simulated procurement constraints. We compare fairness, accuracy, and demographic disparities, introducing error-type profiling to trace how interventions redistribute false positives and false negatives. Interventions redistributed disparities without consistently reducing them. Two implementations favored already-advantaged groups because they used group size to define disadvantage; small, marginalized groups remained poorly served. These findings show how procurement constraints and implementation choices shape the possibilities for fairness work. We call the resulting condition fairness theatre; dashboard metrics converge while groups' error burdens persist or worsen.
Kelly McConvey, Angelina Zhai, Rebecca Li +1
University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada · Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
The evaluation of fairness in machine learning systems has become a central concern in high-stakes applications, including biometric recognition, healthcare decision-making, and automated risk assessment. Existing approaches typically rely on a small number of fairness metrics to assess model behaviour across group partitions, implicitly assuming that these metrics provide consistent and reliable conclusions. However, different fairness metrics capture distinct statistical properties of model performance and may therefore produce conflicting assessments when applied to the same system. In this work, we investigate the consistency of fairness evaluation by conducting a systematic multi-metric analysis of demographic bias in machine learning models. Using face recognition as a controlled experimental setting, we evaluate model performance across multiple group partitions under a range of commonly used fairness metrics, including error-rate disparities and performance-based measures. Our results demonstrate that fairness assessments can vary significantly depending on the choice of metrics, leading to contradictory conclusions regarding model bias. To quantify this phenomenon, we introduce the Fairness Disagreement Index (FDI), a measure designed to capture the degree of inconsistency across fairness metrics. We further show that disagreement remains high across thresholds and model configurations. These findings highlight a critical limitation in current fairness evaluation practices and suggest that single-metric reporting is insufficient for reliable bias assessment.
Khalid Adnan Alsayed
School of Computing, Engineering & Digital Technologies, Teesside University, UK