Early Warning Detection

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26 papers5 papers in the last four weeks, against 2 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

Forecasting cumulative intraoperative hypotension burden: patient-disjoint evaluation of quantile boosting and alert policies
Nov 6, 2026Yunfan ZhaoClinical Prediction Probabilistic Forecasting
GE Healthcare
The First-Order Value of Free Covariates in Budgeted Risk Monitoring
Oct 31, 2026Yanze CaoChange-Point Detection Early Warning Detection
Shaanxi University of Technology
An Incremental Knowledge-Graph Learner Digital Twin for Evidence-Grounded Early Warning
Oct 27, 2026Ngoc Luyen Le, Marie-Hélène Abel, Bertrand LaforgeEarly Warning Detection Digital Twins
Gamaizer, 93340 Le Raincy, France · Université de technologie de Compiègne, CNRS, Heudasyc (Heuristics and Diagnosis of Complex Systems), CS 60319, 60203 Compiègne Cedex, France · Sorbonne Université, CNRS UMR 7585, LPNHE (Laboratoire de Physique Nucléaire et des Hautes Énergies), 75252 Paris Cedex 05, France
CrisiLangs: A Multilingual Resource for Crisis Warning Generation
Oct 22, 2026Giacomo Gonella, Stefano Menini, Marco GueriniMultilingual Language Models Early Warning Detection
Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Italy · University of Trento, Italy
EpiGuard: An Autonomous Infectious-Disease Early Warning Agent Platform
Oct 14, 2026Tonglong Wei, Zheng Yuan, Lingshuai Lin +3Early Warning Detection Epidemic Forecasting
Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
A Time-Synchronous Prequential Evaluation Framework for Next-Week Student Disengagement Prediction from Moodle LMS Logs
Oct 12, 2026David Otoo-Arthur, Terence L. van ZylEarly Warning Detection Educational Data Mining
University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa · University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg, South Africa
Fairness Theatre: Evaluating Post-Hoc Fairness Interventions in Vendor-Controlled Early Warning Systems
Sep 29, 2026Kelly McConvey, Angelina Zhai, Rebecca Li +1Algorithmic Auditing Algorithmic Fairness
University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada · Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Indicators of resilience for autonomous control systems
Sep 16, 2026Jasper van Beers, Da-Hwi Kim, Prashant Solanki +1Robot Failure Detection Early Warning Detection
Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, 2629 HS Delft, The Netherlands
Seasonal false alarms in customer churn and decline early-warning systems: adjacent-window labels confound seasonality with decline, and a year-over-year correction
Aug 17, 2026Md Rezwanul Islam, Wael MohammedEarly Warning Detection
Field Nation LLC, Minneapolis, MN, USA
Koopman early warning signals for bifurcation and rate-induced tipping
Aug 12, 2026Juan Nathaniel, Carla Roesch, Derek DeSantis +5Early Warning Detection Dynamical Systems
Columbia University, USA · University of Edinburgh, UK · Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA +3
Improving Mental Health Screening and Early Risk Detection in Spanish
Jul 30, 2026Andreu Casamayor-Segarra, Vicent Ahuir, Antonio Molina-Marco +1Social Media Analysis Mental Health
VRAIN: Valencian Research Institute for Artificial Intelligence Universitat Polit`ecnica de Val`encia Val`encia, Spain · VRAIN: Valencian Research Institute for Artificial Intelligence Universitat Polit`ecnica de Val`encia ValgrAI: Valencian Graduate School and Research Network of Artificial Intelligence Val`encia, Spain
Critical slowing down for predicting controller induced loss of control in quadrotors
Jul 28, 2026Jasper J. van Beers, Prashant Solanki, Erik-Jan van Kampen +1Safety-Critical Control Early Warning Detection
PhD Candidate, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, 2629 HS Delft, The Netherlands · PostDoc, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, 2629 HS Delft, The Netherlands · Associate professor, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, 2629 HS Delft, The Netherlands
Contextualized Early Detection of Online Firestorms: A Sequential LLM-Based Approach
Jul 16, 2026Besim Shala, Peter Mandl, Andreas Humpe +1Social Media Analysis Early Warning Detection
University of Applied Sciences Munich, Germany
Distributed Hierarchical Temporal Memory with Shared Associative Memory for Cross-Entity Preemptive Warning
Jun 30, 2026Pavia Bera, Jennifer Adorno, Sanjukta BhanjaOnline Anomaly Detection Cross-Domain Transfer Learning
University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA
When Evidence is Sparse: Weakly Supervised Early Failure Alerting in Dialogs and LLM-Agent Trajectories
Jun 3, 2026Avinash Baidya, Xinran Liang, Ruocheng Guo +2Weakly Supervised Learning LLM Agent Reliability
Intuit AI Research · Princeton University
When Can We Trust Early Warnings? Leakage-Excluded Early Outcome Prediction from LMS Interaction Logs
May 25, 2026Ngoc Luyen Le, Marie-Hélène Abel, Bertrand LaforgeData Leakage AI in Education
Gamaizer, 93340 Le Raincy, France · Université de technologie de Compiègne, CNRS, Heudiasyc (Heuristics and Diagnosis of Complex Systems), CS 60319 - 60203 Compiègne Cedex, France · Sorbonne Université, CNRS UMR 7585, LPMHE (Laboratoire de Physique Nucléaire et des Hautes Énergies), 75252 Paris cedex 05, France
In-context learning to predict critical transitions in dynamical systems
May 12, 2026Yunus Sevinchan, Juan Nathaniel, Kai Ueltzhöffer +8Dynamical Systems Early Warning Detection
kausable Heidelberg, Germany · Columbia University New York, USA · University of Edinburgh Scotland, UK
ORACLE: Anticipating Scams from Partial Trajectories in Streaming App Usage
May 9, 2026Wenbo Gao, Songbai Tan, Zhongan Wang +6Online Anomaly Detection Financial Fraud Detection
Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen · Shenzhen University · Zhejiang University +4
Event-Based Early Warning of Vineyard Disease Risk from Environmental Time Series
May 6, 2026Ivica Dimitrovski, Ivan Kitanovski, Danco Davcev +2Event Time Prediction Time Series Forecasting
Faculty of Computer Science and Engineering University Ss Cyril and Methodius Skopje 1000, North Macedonia
Koopman Representations for Early Outbreak Warning and Minimal Counterfactual Intervention in Multi-Agent Epidemic Simulations
May 3, 2026Florin LeonEpidemic Forecasting Agent-Based Modeling
Department of Computers Faculty of Automatic Control and Computer Engineering “Gheorghe Asachi” Technical University of Iași, Romania
Early Detection of Latent Microstructure Regimes in Limit Order Books
Apr 22, 2026Prakul Sunil Hiremath, Vruksha Arun HiremathQuantitative Finance Latent Dynamics Modeling
Department of Computer Science and Engineering Visvesvaraya Technological University, Belagavi · Department of Business Administration K.L.E. Society’s College of Business Administration
The Hiremath Early Detection (HED) Score: A Measure-Theoretic Evaluation Standard for Temporal Intelligence
Apr 5, 2026Prakul Sunil HiremathEarly Warning Detection Anomaly Detection
Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Visvesvaraya Technological University (VTU), Belagavi, India · Aliens on Earth (AoE) Autonomous Research Group, Belagavi, India
Ultra-Early Prediction of Tipping Points: Integrating Dynamical Measures with Reservoir Computing
Mar 16, 2026Xin Li, Qunxi Zhu, Chengli Zhao +4Early Warning Detection Dynamical Systems
College of Science, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha, Hunan 410073, China · Research Institute of Intelligent Complex Systems and MOE Frontiers Center for Brain Science, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China · School of Mathematical Sciences, SCMS, SCAM, and CCSB, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China +1
CERES: A Probabilistic Early Warning System for Acute Food Insecurity
Mar 10, 2026Tom Danny S. PedersenEarly Warning Detection Probabilistic Forecasting
Northflow Technologies AS, Stavanger, Norway
Forecasting Anomaly Precursors via Uncertainty-Aware Time-Series Ensembles
Feb 19, 2026Hyeongwon Kang, Jinwoo Park, Seunghun Han +1Early Warning Detection Time-Series Anomaly Detection
Department of Industrial & Management Engineering, Korea University, 126-16 Anam-dong 5-ga, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea · Department of Industrial Engineering, Seoul National University, Gwanak-ro 1, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea · LG CNS, 71, Magokjungang 8-ro, Gangseo-gu, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Who Gets Watched? Allocating Scarce Escalation Resources on Pediatric Wards with Neural Index Policies
Oct 24, 2025Himadri S. Pandey, Mark V. Mai, Naveen Muthu +2Healthcare Clinical Triage
Georgia Institute of Technology · University of Washington

Nov 6, 2026J/K move · Enter open · S save

Forecasting cumulative intraoperative hypotension burden: patient-disjoint evaluation of quantile boosting and alert policies

Yunfan Zhao

GE Healthcare

Clinical Prediction Probabilistic Forecasting Early Warning Detection Quantile Regression

Open paper AskPDF arXiv

Background: Binary hypotension forecasts do not describe the depth and duration of future low pressure. Burden forecasts may support graded early warning, but better forecast scores need not yield more useful alerts. Objective: To evaluate conditional quantiles of the next 15-minute mean arterial pressure (MAP) deficit below 65 mmHg and distinguish forecasting performance from episode-warning performance. Methods: Public VitalDB numeric arterial MAP was reduced to 10-second medians without forward filling. Subject-disjoint training, validation and test splits included 70,402, 14,270 and 15,575 labeled windows. We compared climatology, calibrated persistence, last-MAP-only boosting, and direct and residual quantile boosting, with and without additional MAP-history features. Patient-weighted pinball loss and subject-bootstrap intervals evaluated forecasting. Validation selected alert thresholds before a hash-recorded test evaluation. Results: In the test split, the prespecified residual-versus-persistence comparison at the 90th percentile yielded losses of 2.256 and 2.900 mmHg-min, respectively (difference -0.644; 95% interval -0.814 to -0.487). Direct prediction achieved 2.196, and direct prediction with additional MAP features achieved 2.193. Episode-warning results were sensitive to the alert rule and operating threshold. Conclusions: This retrospective benchmark separates burden-forecast skill from warning-policy performance. Findings support further study of direct burden estimation; they do not establish patient benefit, prospective reliability or transportability beyond the source hospital.