Online Learning for Supervisory Switching Control

Motivated by the challenge of stabilizing a general unknown linear dynamical system (LDS) from observations, we study the natural prerequisite of online prediction. Our goal is to achieve sublinear regret with a memory footprint that adapts to the intrinsic complexity of the dynamics rather than the full hidden-state dimension. We focus on the practically central regime of systems with low instability complexity -- eigenvalues outside the real stable interval that do not decay rapidly, together with non-semisimple modes -- potentially embedded in an otherwise stable real spectrum of much higher dimension; we write $k$ for this count. This regime is the primary setting in which stabilization is plausible: we show that many systems with high instability complexity cannot be stabilized without exponentially large controls. Thus, prediction is meaningful for stabilization precisely when the instability complexity is small. Within this regime, we introduce a unified online algorithm that handles every LDS (including non-diagonalizable systems with complex or exploding modes) with a learnable parameter count of $\widetilde{O}(k)$. Finally, we prove a lower bound showing that $k$ is a valid complexity measure: any filter-based predictor needs at least $k$ filters. Experiments corroborate our theory: on a high-dimensional system, our predictor sharply outperforms prior methods at an equal parameter budget.

This tutorial provides a unified view of the emerging area of bilinear learning and control. Using linear systems as a benchmark, it explains what fundamentally changes in the bilinear settings, how recent theory addresses finite-sample learning and control, and how these ideas connect to broader themes in nonlinear control, representation learning, and data-driven decision making. For learning, we emphasize tools that are particularly useful in the bilinear settings, such as one-sided Bernstein's inequality for dependent and heavy-tailed covariates, blocking arguments, and martingale concentration for input-dependent noise. We then apply these tools to obtain finite-sample learning guarantees for fully observed bilinear systems, partially observed bilinear systems, and linear systems with bilinear observations. For control, we discuss quadratic control from bilinear observations, where the classical separation principle fails, and review tractable approaches based on belief-space receding horizon control. We also cover stabilization of bilinear dynamics under state feedback using semi-definite programming, LMI relaxations, sum-of-squares methods, and Koopman-based lifting. We conclude by discussing connections to reinforcement learning and machine learning, and some open problems in combined learning and control of bilinear systems.

This paper proposes a structured approach to learning linear operators for control systems from data. We address both structural and learning-theoretic aspects of the problem. To derive structural assumptions, we propose using the well-established framework of (semi)groups for evolution equations, as operators in control systems are of the same type. Further, we propose analyzing learning algorithms through the lens of the inverse problems framework. This reveals how a learned model depends on the data via error decompositions, convergence guarantees, and optimal regularization -- enabling us to compare existing methods and derive provably advantageous algorithms. In order to obtain these results, we restrict our scope to bounded operators on Hilbert spaces. Although this may appear restrictive, existing approaches often make this assumption implicitly to obtain matrix-like representations. We demonstrate the power of using these frameworks by deriving a convergent estimator for time-varying systems.