Bayesian Scattering: A Principled Baseline for Uncertainty on Image Data
Organizations: University of Tübingen · ETH Zurich · University of Edinburgh
Abstract
Uncertainty quantification for image data is dominated by complex deep learning methods, yet the field lacks an interpretable, mathematically grounded baseline. We propose Bayesian scattering to fill this gap, serving as a first-step baseline akin to the role of Bayesian linear regression for tabular data. Our method couples the wavelet scattering transform-a deep, non-learned feature extractor-with a simple probabilistic head. Because scattering features are derived from geometric principles rather than learned, they avoid overfitting the training distribution. This helps provide sensible uncertainty estimates even under significant distribution shifts. We validate this on diverse tasks, including medical imaging under institution shift, wealth mapping under country-to-country shift, and Bayesian optimization of molecular properties. Our results suggest that Bayesian scattering is a solid baseline for complex uncertainty quantification methods.
Figures & tables
| Data | Metric | Trivial | Ensemble | Scattering | ConvNeXt | DINOv2 | ||
| (5x ConvNeXt-Atto) | Atto | Base | Small | Base | ||||
| SLP | RMSE | 815 34 | 626 29 | 783 39 | 730 34 | |||
| NLL | 1.52 0.06 | 12.49 3.5 | 1.62 0.27 | 1.87 0.15 | 1.80 0.23 | |||
| QCE | 0.03 0.02 | 0.49 0.05 | 0.14 0.02 | 0.14 0.02 | 0.14 0.01 | 0.14 0.02 | ||
| PI- | 3.92 0.00 | 0.65 0.05 | 2.24 0.18 | 2.65 0.09 | 2.59 0.15 | |||
| PI- | 0.00 0.00 | 0.43 0.05 | 0.64 0.05 | 0.50 0.06 | 0.30 0.02 | 1.14 0.13 | 1.26 0.09 | |
| Metric | BS-RI ( ) | BS-RI ( ) | Ensemble | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBF | RBF-A | RBF | RBF-A | Scatt. | NN | |
| Train Loss | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.74 | 0.68 | - | - |
| RMSE | 543 | 542 | 584 | 583 | 512 | 524 |
| NLL | 1.34 | 1.37 | 1.78 | 2.0 | 18.6 | 37.8 |
Appendix figures & tables2 assets
Supplementary material from the paper’s appendix.
Appendix
| Data | Metric | Trivial | Scattering | ConvNeXt | DINOv2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atto | Base | Small | Base | ||||
| SLP | RMSE | 817 35 | 748 56 | 687 40 | |||
| NLL | 1.50 0.05 | 1.46 0.12 | 1.40 0.10 | ||||
| QCE | 0.03 0.01 | 0.08 0.02 | 0.08 0.02 | 0.06 0.02 | 0.10 0.02 | 0.10 0.02 | |
| PI- | 3.92 0.00 | 1.93 0.01 | 2.32 0.05 | 2.71 0.08 | 2.50 0.09 | ||
| PI- | 0.00 0.00 | 0.11 0.00 | 0.09 0.01 | 0.07 0.01 | 0.13 0.01 | 0.17 0.04 | |
Uncertainty Quantification
Uncertainty quantification estimates how reliable predictions and scientific inferences are, and how uncertainty propagates into decisions.
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