Predictive Photometric Uncertainty in Gaussian Splatting for Novel View Synthesis

3D Gaussian splatting (3DGS) is a strong representation for real-time novel-view synthesis, but its standard training pipeline relies on point estimates and hand-tuned heuristics, providing no native uncertainty or principled complexity control. This is most limiting under sparse views or fixed acquisition budgets, where a model must identify weakly supported geometry and select informative views. We introduce a rendering-aware Bayesian 3DGS framework that tracks Gaussian geometry with a Normal-Inverse-Wishart posterior over means and covariances using renderer-derived surrogate summaries. An optional Dirichlet-process extension adds a probabilistic component-usage signal, and the training schedule makes the closed-form versus approximate inference boundary explicit. Re-rendering posterior geometry samples yields native predictive uncertainty for interval calibration and active view selection. In a fixed-budget 16-to-32 active-view task, native NIW acquisition improves PSNR by +0.453 dB and LPIPS by -0.0146 over a scoring-only 3-member standard-ensemble baseline, winning 29/39 scene-seed pairs and 10/13 scene means; it also improves over PPU-style (+0.355 dB) and NIW-proxy (+0.401 dB) acquisition. NIW native intervals reduce 95% coverage error by about 17x relative to a shared proxy (0.046 vs. 0.796) and are about 10x closer to nominal coverage than a 3-member deep ensemble (0.047 vs. 0.454) at roughly one-third the training cost. As a reconstruction compatibility check, paired NIW-vs-standard analysis over 39 scene-seed runs yields +0.030 dB PSNR with 1.6% additional training time. These results position Bayesian 3DGS as a practical probabilistic scene representation for decision-facing tasks such as active view selection.

Sparse-view 3D Gaussian Splatting is prone to overfitting because limited observations leave many Gaussian primitives weakly constrained, yet their contributions are still accumulated through alpha blending. Without uncertainty estimation, the renderer cannot distinguish unreliable primitives from well-constrained ones, allowing their erroneous contributions to corrupt novel-view synthesis. We introduce UGOD, an uncertainty-guided framework that estimates a view-dependent uncertainty score for each Gaussian and uses it to regulate its rendering contribution. A lightweight uncertainty head conditioned on Gaussian attributes and viewing direction predicts this score, which then drives a differentiable opacity-modulation mechanism that attenuates high-uncertainty primitives before compositing. During training, a detached soft-dropout branch applies an uncertainty-controlled continuous keep mask to discourage the model from relying on poorly constrained Gaussians and thereby reduce overfitting. Crucially, detaching the uncertainty score prevents gradients from this stochastic regulariser from biasing or collapsing the uncertainty prediction. Experiments on Mip-NeRF~360 and LLFF show that UGOD improves sparse-view novel-view synthesis while producing more compact Gaussian representations than the compared methods. These results demonstrate that Gaussian uncertainty provides an effective rendering-time control for sparse-view reconstruction.

We present Gaussian Splatting Anisotropic Visibility Field (GAVIS), a novel framework for uncertainty quantification and active mapping in 3DGS. Our key insight is that regions unseen from the training views yield unreliable predictions from the 3DGS. To address this, we introduce a principled and efficient method for quantifying the visibility field in 3DGS, defined as the anisotropic visibility of each particle with respect to the training views, and represented using spherical harmonics. The resulting visibility field is integrated into a Bayesian Network-based uncertainty-aware 3DGS rasterizer, enabling real-time (200 FPS) uncertainty quantification for synthesized views. Active mapping is further performed within a maximum information gain framework building on this formulation. Extensive experiments across diverse environments demonstrate that GAVIS consistently and significantly outperforms prior approaches in both accuracy and efficiency. Moreover, beyond standalone use, our method can be applied post-hoc to improve the performance of existing approaches.