Phonological Fossils: Machine Learning Detection of Non-Mainstream Vocabulary in Sulawesi Basic Lexicon
Abstract
Basic vocabulary in many Sulawesi Austronesian languages includes forms resisting reconstruction to any proto-form with phonological patterns inconsistent with inherited roots, but whether this non-conforming vocabulary represents pre-Austronesian substrate or independent innovation has not been tested computationally. We combine rule-based cognate subtraction with a machine learning classifier trained on phonological features. Using 1,357 forms from six Sulawesi languages in the Austronesian Basic Vocabulary Database, we identify 438 candidate substrate forms (26.5%) through cognate subtraction and Proto-Austronesian cross-checking. An XGBoost classifier trained on 26 phonological features distinguishes inherited from non-mainstream forms with AUC=0.763, revealing a phonological fingerprint: longer forms, more consonant clusters, higher glottal stop rates, and fewer Austronesian prefixes. Cross-method consensus (Cohen's kappa=0.61) identifies 266 high-confidence non-mainstream candidates. However, clustering yields no coherent word families (silhouette=0.114; cross-linguistic cognate test p=0.569), providing no evidence for a single pre-Austronesian language layer. Application to 16 additional languages confirms geographic patterning: Sulawesi languages show higher predicted non-mainstream rates (mean P_sub=0.606) than Western Indonesian languages (0.393). This study demonstrates that phonological machine learning can complement traditional comparative methods in detecting non-mainstream lexical layers, while cautioning against interpreting phonological non-conformity as evidence for a shared substrate language.
Figures & tables
| Language | Total | Has Cognacy | Residual | % Residual | Coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muna | 219 | 185 (84%) | 26 | 11.9% | 84% |
| Bugis | 242 | 180 (74%) | 49 | 20.2% | 74% |
| Toraja-Sa’dan | 216 | 171 (79%) | 32 | 14.8% | 79% |
| Wolio | 254 | 171 (67%) | 68 | 26.8% | 67% |
| Makassar | 217 | 137 (63%) | 67 | 30.9% | 63% |
| Tolaki | 209 | 75 (36%) | 114 | 54.5% | 36% |
| Model | Classifier | AUC | F1 | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A (Full) | XGBoost | 1.000 0.001 | 1.000 0.001 | 1.000 0.001 |
| Random Forest | 1.000 0.000 | 1.000 0.000 | 1.000 0.001 | |
| Logistic Reg. | 1.000 0.000 | 1.000 0.000 | 1.000 0.000 | |
| B (Phon.) | XGBoost | 0.760 0.007 | 0.822 0.005 | 0.741 0.008 |
| Random Forest | 0.762 0.006 | 0.788 0.006 | 0.717 0.008 | |
| Logistic Reg. | 0.747 0.003 | 0.748 0.005 | 0.683 0.006 |
| Held-out language | AUC | F1 | Acc. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tolaki | 0.806 | 0.530 | 0.364 | 209 | 134 |
| Makassar | 0.747 | 0.781 | 0.659 | 217 | 80 |
| Bugis | 0.727 | 0.799 | 0.707 | 242 | 62 |
| Wolio | 0.697 | 0.798 | 0.669 | 254 | 83 |
| Toraja-Sa’dan | 0.696 | 0.787 | 0.690 | 216 | 45 |
| Muna | 0.618 | 0.465 | 0.402 | 219 | 34 |
| Variant | CV AUC | LOLO mean AUC | LOLO 0.65 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full Model B (27 features) | 0.760 0.007 | 0.715 | 5/6 |
| Ablated ( coverage, 26 feat.) | 0.763 0.007 | 0.722 | 6/6 |
| Pure phonological (25 feat.) | 0.727 0.007 | 0.701 | 5/6 |
| Group | Mean Rule% | Mean ML% | Mean AUC | Mean | Notable outliers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original 6 | 6 | 28.0 | 23.1 | 0.890 | 0.326 | — |
| Sulawesi exp. | 8 | 49.9 | 62.4 | 0.685 | 0.606 | Bol.Mong. (9.2%), Gorontalo (84.2%) |
| W. Indonesian | 6 | 28.4 | 35.3 | 0.634 | 0.393 | Acehnese (62.9%), Sundanese (1.8%) |
| E. Indonesian | 2 | 34.9 | 51.9 | 0.661 | 0.520 | — |