ART: Adaptive Relational Transformer for Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction with Temporal-Aware Relations

Pedestrian trajectory prediction requires modeling temporal dynamics, multimodal cues, and social interactions in crowded environments. Existing methods often address these factors separately or entangle them in costly attention blocks, limiting scalability, flexibility, and interpretability. We propose a three-step hierarchical Transformer that explicitly separates temporal encoding, multimodal fusion, and scene-level interaction reasoning. Lightweight GRU summaries enable efficient cross-modal attention, while social attention over time--agent tokens captures inter-pedestrian influences at manageable cost. Experiments on JTA, JRDB, and the Pedestrians and Cyclists in Road Traffic dataset show state-of-the-art performance on real-world datasets (JRDB, Urban) and competitive results on JTA. Ablation and qualitative analyses confirm the contribution of each stage and the model's ability to anticipate complex behaviors such as early turning.

Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction in crowded environments remains challenging due to the multimodal uncertainty of human motion and the variable complexity of motion dynamics across different scene contexts. Existing goal-conditioned models rely on static displacement structures that assign equal weight to all historical time steps, standard graph attention mechanisms, and fixed-capacity motion decoders that cannot adapt to local prediction complexity. To address these limitations, we propose TSCA-Net, a trajectory prediction framework built upon three complementary modules. The Temporal-Spatial Clique Attention (TSCA) module introduces learnable temporal gating into clique-based goal-history interaction, enabling time-aware modulation of historical observations relative to each candidate goal. The Cross-Pedestrian Clique Potential (CPCP) module models asymmetric pairwise agent relationships through a dynamic clique potential framework with a time-varying social graph. The Adaptive KAN Grid Refinement (AKGR) mechanism dynamically adjusts the B-spline grid resolution of a Kolmogorov-Arnold Network-augmented LSTM decoder based on per-agent goal distribution entropy, balancing model expressiveness against overfitting across varying motion complexities. Extensive experiments on the ETH/UCY and Stanford Drone Dataset benchmarks demonstrate that TSCA-Net achieves state-of-the-art performance, with average ADE/FDE of 0.13/0.20 m on ETH/UCY and 6.95/10.43 pixels on SDD. Comprehensive ablation studies confirm the complementary contributions of all three proposed modules.

Forecasting pedestrian motion has always been fundamental for autonomous navigation in crowded environments. While attention-based methods achieve strong performance, they suffer from quadratic computational complexity in modeling social interactions, limiting scalability. Additionally, the existing methods often achieve high accuracy on prediction benchmarks at the individual level, but fail to fully capture the natural movement behaviors of crowds in real-world scenarios, particularly group structures. In this study, we propose Social Graph Mamba (SGM), a novel architecture that replaces attention-based social reasoning with Selective State Space Models (SSMs) operating on dynamically constructed interaction graphs. SGM introduces a dynamic interaction graph with social triplet factorization to decompose crowd interactions sequentially, and a community-aware module to effectively discover group structures via differentiable MinCut optimization and conditions both the embedding space and multi-modal decoder on group membership. Our experiments on standard benchmarks (ETH/UCY, SDD) demonstrate competitive performance with linear sequence complexity compared to quadratic attention-based methods. We further validate SGM in physical robot experiments by integrating predicted trajectories into a Social Force Model (SFM) for real-world implementation.