Multimodal Trajectory Prediction

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Overview

Multimodal trajectory prediction studies how to forecast multiple plausible future paths when an agent’s intent or interactions are uncertain, in settings from road traffic and crowds to vessels and robots. Methods include CVAEs, GANs, Gaussian mixtures, diffusion and flow models, motion-prior retrieval, and Transformer or state-space architectures that use histories, maps, images, and social interactions. They are evaluated on benchmarks such as Waymo, Argoverse, nuScenes, and ETH/UCY, with growing attention to probability calibration, physical feasibility, and joint consistency among agents. A central tension is producing diverse, well-ranked forecasts that remain safe and useful in closed-loop planning without excessive inference cost.

Latest papers

CardsList

56 papers11 papers in the last four weeks, up 57% on the four weeks before. 0.1% of all new papers.

  1. TRACE: Tracking Multimodal Clinical Trajectories for Inpatient Risk Prediction

    Oct 19, 2026Minjun Kim, Jong Hak MoonClinical Outcome PredictionClinical Risk Prediction

    Yeji X

  2. Energy-Score Stabilized Attentive Mixture-Density Policy: A Lightweight Approach to Multimodal Robot Motion

    Oct 18, 2026Sachiya Fujita, Hideyuki Ichiwara, Shigeki Sugano +1Visuomotor Policy LearningMixture Density Networks

    All authors are with the Waseda University, Shinjuku, 169-8555 Tokyo, Japan.

  3. FutureLift: Lifting Trajectory Proposals into Bidirectional Future Graphs for Motion Forecasting

    Oct 15, 2026Daniel Grimm, J. Marius ZöllnerMultimodal Trajectory PredictionMulti-Agent Trajectory Prediction

    FZI Research Center for Information Technology

  4. JtT: Rethinking Point Trajectory Diffusion for Diverse and Rigid Motion from an Image

    Oct 12, 2026Gabrijel Boduljak, Yushi Lan, Christian Rupprecht +1Trajectory PredictionMotion Diffusion Models

    Visual Geometry Group, University of Oxford

  5. Multi-modal Representation Fusion for Long-term Microsurgical Anastomosis Trajectory Anticipation

    Oct 10, 2026Yuxuan Liu, Yating Luo, Yunfei Luan +4Trajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

  6. Trajectory Prediction for Autonomous Driving in Road Construction Zones Using Human-in-the-Loop Driving Data

    Oct 8, 2026Shuo Zhang, Aman Sunesh, Semiha Ergan +1Vehicle Trajectory PredictionAutonomous Driving

    New York University New York City, NY, USA · New York University New York, USA

  7. Context-aware Attention-based Gaussian Mixture Models for Vehicular Trajectory Prediction

    Oct 6, 2026Arash Raftari, Babak Ebrahimi Soorchaei, Yaser P. FallahMultimodal Trajectory PredictionVehicle Trajectory Prediction

    Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, USA · Department of Computer Science, University of Central Florida, Orlando, Florida, USA

  8. MoCAR: Motion-code Coordinate-aware AutoRegression for Continuous Trajectory Forecasting

    Oct 5, 2026Yiming Xu, Hao Cheng, Monika SesterTrajectory GenerationTrajectory Representation Learning

    Institute of Cartography and Geoinformatics Leibniz University Hannover, 30167 Hannover, Germany · Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation University of Twente, 7522 NH Enschede, The Netherlands

  9. Conditional Trajectory Peaks: Single-Pass Multimodal Policies over Action Chunks

    Oct 5, 2026Di Wu, Rongtian Shen, Ping Liu +4Efficient Multimodal InferenceRobot Policy Learning

    Magiclab Robotics Technology Co., Ltd., China · Southeast University, Nanjing, China

  10. Efficient Multi-Modal Planning with Reward-Guided Preference Optimization for Autonomous Driving

    Sep 30, 2026Chenglin Chen, Lujia Wang, Xinhu Zheng +2Safe Motion PlanningAutonomous Driving Planning

  11. Admissible Diffusion for Multimodal Interventional Trajectories

    Sep 28, 2026Xing Han, Shravan Chaudhari, Jiarui Shao +2Constrained Generative ModelingCausal Inference

    Johns Hopkins University · Massachusetts Institute of Technology · Bayesian Health

  12. TriDrive: Joint Driver, Vehicle, and Road Modeling for Forecasting and Driver Monitoring

    Sep 26, 2026Yuhang Wang, Jingxin Yang, Chuheng Wei +4Driver MonitoringAutonomous Driving

    University of South Florida · NVIDIA · Purdue University +1

  13. Destination Support Restoration for Finite-Set Multimodal Trajectory Prediction

    Sep 22, 2026Fengrui Liu, Jiajun Peng, Duo Peng +1Pedestrian Trajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

    School of Computer Science and Technology, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China · School of Data Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China · School of Computer Science and Technology, Tongji University, Shanghai, China +1

  14. Driving on Registers, Reasoning on Risk: Risk-Aware Occupancy for Register-Based End-to-End Autonomous Driving

    Sep 18, 2026Jiaxing Chen, Hengduo Zou, YuKai Qin +3End-to-End Autonomous DrivingAutonomous Driving Planning

    School of Vehicle and Mobility, Tsinghua University · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou) · Neolix, Beijing, China

  15. MM-Future: Multi-Mode Joint World-Action Modeling for Autonomous Driving

    Sep 17, 2026Shuai Liu, Hechangle Gong, Hao Jiang +5World Models for Autonomous DrivingAutonomous Driving Planning

    NIO · School of Computer Science and Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University · Beihang University +1

  16. BLInD: Learning Driver Intent as a Distribution over Future Ego Trajectories

    Sep 12, 2026Flavian Pegado, Ronit Hire, Shreyas Rajesh +1Vehicle Trajectory PredictionAutonomous Driving

    Wayve Technologies

  17. M3-Former: Multimodal Transformer with Mixture-of-Experts for Long-Term Vessel Trajectory Prediction

    Sep 11, 2026Wenzhe Jin, Haina TangMixture of ExpertsVessel Trajectory Prediction

    School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

  18. Hi-FLoop: Hierarchical State-Feedback Loops for Multi-Timescale World Modeling

    Sep 8, 2026Rx Fan, Z HanMulti-Agent Trajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

    School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University

  19. PersonaDrive: Controllable Trajectory Prediction with Multi-Dimensional Driving Personas

    Aug 15, 2026Chan Lee, Kimin Yun, Yuseok Bae +2Multimodal Trajectory PredictionAutonomous Driving Datasets

    Kyung Hee University, Yong-in, South Korea · ETRI, Daejeon, South Korea

  20. Non-Parametric Spatiotemporal Trajectory Prediction via State-Conditioned Transition Sampling

    Aug 14, 2026Michael Fore, Akshay Jain, Justin Downes +2Trajectory GenerationVessel Trajectory Prediction

    Amazon Web Services

  21. Clustered Randomized Smoothing for Stochastic Prediction Functions

    Aug 12, 2026Eduardo Figueiredo, Frederik Mathiesen, Julian Schumann +3Multimodal RobustnessRandomized Smoothing

    Delft Center for Systems and Control, Delft University of Technology · Cognitive Robotics, Delft University of Technology · University of Stuttgart +1

  22. Capturing Uncertainty in Human Motion for Representation Learning in Soccer

    Aug 11, 2026Yizhou Xu, Lars Bretzner, Tiesheng Wang +1Self-Supervised Time Series Representation LearningSports Video Analysis

    KTH Royal Institute of Technology · EA Sports TRACAB

  23. Social Graph Mamba: Forecasting Pedestrian Movements Based on Social Context

    Aug 11, 2026Hong-Son Nguyen, Yen-Chen LiuPedestrian Trajectory PredictionPedestrian Behavior Modeling

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan 70101, Taiwan

  24. NaviAIS: A Scenario-Level Vessel Trajectory Prediction Dataset withVectorized Lane Priors and the NaviLane Forecasting Framework

    Jul 21, 2026Yuan Gui, Hongchen Luo, Liqi Qu +2Vessel Trajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

    Northeastern University, Shenyang 110819, China

  25. TSCA-Net: Temporal-Spatial Clique Attention for Interpretable Multimodal Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction

    Jul 11, 2026Md Mustafizur Rahman, Guangchao Yang, A F M Abdun Noor +3Pedestrian Behavior ModelingPedestrian Trajectory Prediction

    College of Computer Science, Chongqing University, Chongqing, China · Department of Software Engineering, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

  26. IMR: Iterative Mode-World Weighted Regression for Multi-Agent Trajectory Prediction

    Jul 6, 2026Honglin Wang, Shiyao Pan, Yun-Fu LiuMulti-Agent Trajectory PredictionMultimodal Trajectory Prediction

    EACON Fujian, China

  27. LAMP: Lane-Aligned Motion Primitives for Feasible Trajectory Prediction

    Jun 25, 2026Sangjin Han, Hoseong Jung, Jeongtae Her +2Multimodal Trajectory PredictionTrajectory Prediction

    Seoul National University · Hyundai Motor Company, Republic of Korea

  28. Rethinking Training & Inference for Forecasting: Linking Winner-Take-All back to GMMs

    Jun 24, 2026Qiyuan Wu, Katie Z Luo, Bharath Hariharan +2Gaussian Mixture ModelsProbabilistic Forecasting

    Cornell University · Stanford University · Boston University

  29. AeroCast: Probabilistic 3D Trajectory Prediction for Non-Cooperative Aerial Obstacles via Transformer-MDN Architecture

    Jun 23, 2026Syed Izzat Ullah, Jose BacaProbabilistic Trajectory PredictionAerial Robotics

    Department of Engineering, Texas A&M University–Corpus Christi, Corpus Christi, TX 78412 USA

  30. Three-Step Hierarchical Transformer for Multi-Pedestrian Trajectory Prediction

    Jun 22, 2026Raphaël Delécluse, Hazem Wannous, Laurent Grisoni +1Pedestrian Behavior ModelingPedestrian Trajectory Prediction

    IMT Nord Europe, University of Lille, CNRS UMR 9189 - CRIStAL, F-59000 Lille, France · University of Lille, CNRS UMR 9189 - CRIStAL, F-59000 Lille, France · Explain, F-59000 Lille, France