Untargeted analysis of volatile markers of post-exercise fat oxidation in exhaled breath

Electrodermal Activity (EDA) is a non-invasive physiological signal widely available in wearable devices and reflects sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activation. Prior multi-modal studies have demonstrated robust performance in distinguishing stress and exercise states when EDA is combined with complementary signals such as heart rate and accelerometry. However, the ability of EDA to independently distinguish sustained aerobic exercise from low-arousal states under subject-independent evaluation remains insufficiently characterized. This study investigates whether features derived exclusively from EDA can reliably differentiate rest from sustained aerobic exercise. Using a publicly available dataset collected from thirty healthy individuals, EDA features were evaluated using benchmark machine learning models with leave-one-subject-out (LOSO) validation. Across models, EDA-only classifiers achieved moderate subject-independent performance, with phasic temporal dynamics and event timing contributing to class separation. Rather than proposing EDA as a replacement for multimodal sensing, this work provides a conservative benchmark of the discriminative power of EDA alone and clarifies its role as a unimodal input for wearable activity-state inference.

Structured tabular data dominates clinical medicine, yet existing benchmarks fail to reflect real-world properties like complex survey sampling, demographic oversampling, and subgroup fairness. We introduce the NHANES Accelerometry Cardiometabolic Benchmark, derived from NHANES 2003-2006, comprising 1,381 adults with hip-worn accelerometry, fasting laboratory biomarkers, dietary intake, and anthropometrics. We evaluate three tabular learning methods -- ridge regression, XGBoost, and the foundation model TabPFN v2 -- to predict glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), fasting triglycerides, and C-reactive protein (CRP) from activity phenotypes and lifestyle covariates. TabPFN v2 achieves the best overall performance (HbA1c R^2=0.156, CRP R^2=0.383), while triglycerides remain largely unpredictable (R^2 < 0.05), consistent with known genetic dominance. We apply split conformal prediction to generate distribution-free 90% prediction intervals and evaluate demographic coverage equity across sex and race/ethnicity subgroups. Marginal coverage aligns with the 90% target for CRP and HbA1c but falls below for triglycerides. At the subgroup level, we observe localized undercoverage (e.g., HbA1c for Mexican American participants), illustrating the gap between marginal guarantees and the conditional coverage required for clinical fairness. Code and data are at https://github.com/felizzi/nhanes-accel-cardiometabolic-benchmark.

Accurate estimation of body-composition outcomes, including body fat percentage (BFP), bone mineral density (BMD), and appendicular lean mass (ALM), is important for evaluating metabolic, skeletal, and muscular health. Direct assessment using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), however, requires specialized equipment and involves ionizing radiation. We propose a target-aware, state-adaptive $p$-Dirichlet energy-flow graph neural regression ($p$SADE-GNR) framework for estimating these outcomes from non-invasive anthropometric measurements. A neural encoder maps participant representations to hidden states that are propagated over an outcome-specific participant-similarity graph by a state-adaptive forward-Euler discretization of the graph $p$-Dirichlet energy flow. Graph distances weight each original or latent coordinate by its normalized absolute training-fold correlation with the outcome. Using clinical data from the Pennington Biomedical Research Center and five-fold cross-validation, the correlation-weighted model using the original standardized measurements achieved the lowest root mean squared error in all nine primary outcome-cohort combinations and outperformed previously reported support vector regression or least-squares support vector regression reference values in eight of nine comparisons. Autoencoder, variational-autoencoder, and Gaussian-mixture variational-autoencoder representations generally did not improve primary-outcome prediction or reduce computational cost. In an exploratory age-prediction analysis including ALM, BMD, and BFP as predictors, the correlation-weighted GMVAE model achieved the lowest mean error in all three cohorts. These results support target-aware, state-adaptive $p$-Dirichlet graph neural regression for non-invasive body-composition estimation.