Instantiating Bayesian CVaR lower bounds in Interactive Decision Making Problems

Minimax risk and regret are expectation-based criteria and do not capture rare but consequential failures. To address this concern, we develop a $δ$-explicit minimax-quantile theory for interactive statistical decision making (ISDM). We first provide structural relations between minimax quantiles, lower minimax quantiles, and minimax risk. This includes a quantile-to-expectation conversion and an equivalence between strict and lower minimax quantiles outside a countable set of confidence levels. We then derive two converse tools for ISDM: a high-probability interactive Fano's method and a high-probability interactive Le Cam's method. Then, we show that mutual-information (MI) privacy can be handled in the same framework by restricting the admissible decision class. For coordinatewise Gaussian privatization, we derive a two-point template that isolates the privacy-induced variance inflation. We instantiate this template for Gaussian mean estimation, and use the same two-point strategy directly for two-armed Gaussian bandits. We then derive a minimax quantile lower bound for the $K$-armed Gaussian bandit problem, showing that the interactive Fano method captures the exploration cost over multiple possible best arms. The resulting lower bounds are explicit in the confidence level $δ$ and in the privacy budget for the private problems. They yield $\log(1/δ)/n$ scaling for squared-error Gaussian mean estimation, $\sqrt{T\log(1/δ)}$ scaling for two-armed bounded-mean Gaussian bandits, and $\sqrt{KT\log(1/δ)}$-type scaling for the $K$-armed bandits, with privacy appearing through a Gaussian variance-inflation factor for the private problems.

We study Bayesian optimization of the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of an expensive black-box function that depends on a decision and an environmental variable. Existing no-regret algorithms assume that the correct Gaussian process (GP) kernel and its hyperparameters are known. In practice, however, they must be estimated from limited data, often yielding a misspecified surrogate. This is especially damaging for CVaR because misspecification can distort the estimated tail-risk and thus lead to catastrophic decisions. We propose HE-CV-UCB, the first no-regret algorithm for CVaR Bayesian optimization with unknown GP hyperparameters. Given a finite candidate set containing a well-specified model, HE-CV-UCB adaptively eliminates those inconsistent with the observed data, actively queries where the survivors disagree, and returns a design that is robust across the surviving candidates. We prove that it attains cumulative regret matching the oracle rate of CV-UCB up to a factor depending only on the candidate set's size. Across synthetic benchmarks and three real-world applications, HE-CV-UCB achieves competitive performance and frequently outperforms existing CVaR Bayesian optimization methods.

For finite-horizon tabular CVaR reinforcement learning, prior work proves a $\widetilde{O}(τ^{-1}\sqrt{SAK})$ leading regret bound for arbitrary normalized return laws and the sharper $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{SAK/τ})$ rate under a density lower bound. We show that the same Bernstein CVaR-UCBVI algorithm attains the sharper rate without continuity assumptions. The key is a selected-budget self-bound: the conditional variance of the episode shortfall is at most $τ$ plus the value-estimation width. Substitution into the original Bernstein decomposition yields, with high probability, $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{SAK/τ}+(SAHK^{1/4}+S^2AH)/τ)$ regret for arbitrary normalized return laws, including atomic, mixed, and continuous laws. The $τ^{-1/2}$ leading term matches the expected-regret minimax lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Thus Bernstein CVaR-UCBVI is minimax-optimal over the full return-law class in the leading-order regime; the lower-order terms retain their $τ^{-1}$ dependence.