Organizations: School of Computer Science, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan) · School of Information Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology · School of Mathematics and Statistics, Wuhan University of Technology
Accurate trajectory prediction is fundamentally challenging due to high scene heterogeneity - the severe variance in motion velocity, spatial density, and interaction patterns across different real-world environments. However, most existing approaches typically train a single unified model, expecting a fixed-capacity architecture to generalize universally across all possible scenarios. This conventional model-centric paradigm is fundamentally flawed when confronting such extreme heterogeneity, inevitably leading to a severe generalization gap, degraded accuracy, and massive computational waste. To overcome this bottleneck, rather than refining restricted model-centric architectures, we propose selective learning, a novel scene-centric paradigm. It explicitly analyzes the characteristics of the underlying scene to dynamically route inputs to the most appropriate expert models. As a concrete implementation of this paradigm, we introduce SceneSelect. Specifically, SceneSelect utilizes unsupervised clustering on interpretable geometric and kinematic features to discover a latent scene taxonomy. A highly decoupled classification module is then trained to assign real-time inputs to these scene categories, and a highly extensible, plug-and-play scheduling policy automatically dispatches the trajectory sequence to the optimal expert predictor. Crucially, this decoupled design ensures excellent generalization capabilities, allowing seamless integration with different off-the-shelf models and robust adaptation across new datasets without requiring computationally expensive joint retraining. Extensive experiments on three public benchmarks (ETH-UCY, SDD, and NBA) demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms strong single-model and ensemble baselines, achieving an average improvement of 10.5%, showcasing the effectiveness of scene-aware selective learning.
The growing availability of trajectory datasets has fueled major advances in data-driven motion prediction. Yet, models trained on one dataset often fail to generalize beyond their training domain as a result of differences in scene layouts, agent behaviors, and sensing conditions. A framework that learns latent representations of datasets and quantifies their similarity using distributional metrics is presented. This large-scale study covers 24 major datasets, including the most widely used motion-prediction benchmarks, and shows that the resulting transferability scores strongly correlate with cross-dataset model performance. The results provide practical guidance for dataset selection, pretraining, and large-scale foundation models for motion prediction, paving the way toward more generalizable and robust predictive systems.
Accurate pedestrian trajectory prediction in crowded environments remains challenging due to the multimodal uncertainty of human motion and the variable complexity of motion dynamics across different scene contexts. Existing goal-conditioned models rely on static displacement structures that assign equal weight to all historical time steps, standard graph attention mechanisms, and fixed-capacity motion decoders that cannot adapt to local prediction complexity. To address these limitations, we propose TSCA-Net, a trajectory prediction framework built upon three complementary modules. The Temporal-Spatial Clique Attention (TSCA) module introduces learnable temporal gating into clique-based goal-history interaction, enabling time-aware modulation of historical observations relative to each candidate goal. The Cross-Pedestrian Clique Potential (CPCP) module models asymmetric pairwise agent relationships through a dynamic clique potential framework with a time-varying social graph. The Adaptive KAN Grid Refinement (AKGR) mechanism dynamically adjusts the B-spline grid resolution of a Kolmogorov-Arnold Network-augmented LSTM decoder based on per-agent goal distribution entropy, balancing model expressiveness against overfitting across varying motion complexities. Extensive experiments on the ETH/UCY and Stanford Drone Dataset benchmarks demonstrate that TSCA-Net achieves state-of-the-art performance, with average ADE/FDE of 0.13/0.20 m on ETH/UCY and 6.95/10.43 pixels on SDD. Comprehensive ablation studies confirm the complementary contributions of all three proposed modules.
Md Mustafizur Rahman, Guangchao Yang, A F M Abdun Noor +3
This thesis addresses fundamental challenges in traffic scene prediction for autonomous driving by introducing robust and computationally efficient models based on polynomial representations. While conventional sequence-based representations often struggle with noise and generalization, this work demonstrates that polynomial representations offer significant advantages in computational efficiency, generalization, and prediction plausibility. Through theoretical analysis and empirical validation, this thesis demonstrates that moderate-degree polynomials capture real-world motion dynamics with high fidelity without constraining predictive performance. Building on this foundation, a prediction model representing both trajectories and map geometry with polynomial representations achieves near state-of-the-art accuracy on standard benchmarks while substantially improving generalization under distribution shift. Extending this concept, a diffusion- based generative framework enables multi-agent scene generation, producing traffic continuations that are more plausible and kinematically consistent than those generated by conventional baselines. Evaluations on the Argoverse 2 and Waymo Open datasets confirm that polynomial representations reduce computational cost, enhance cross-dataset generalization, and yield smoother trajectories and higher behavioral plausibility. The findings reveal that standard in-distribution evaluation and regression-based metrics may fail to reflect true model generalization and prediction plausibility. By providing theoretical justification and empirical validation, this dissertation estab- lishes polynomial trajectory representations as an efficient, expressive, and generalizable foundation for traffic scene prediction in safety critical autonomous driving.