Municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) converts urban waste to energy but simultaneously emits carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and multiple regulated air pollutants whose formation is tightly coupled within a single combustion system. Controlling these emissions across a network of diverse facilities poses a fundamentally different challenge from optimising a single plant: data-driven models trained at one site capture local statistical patterns that rarely survive transfer to another, because they lack the physical constraints and regime-level structure needed to generalise. Here we show that shared emission-control relationships can be identified across heterogeneous MSWI plants when physical conservation laws, operating-regime heterogeneity and carbon-pollutant coupling are treated jointly. We develop a carbon-pollutant mixture-of-experts (CPMoE) model that routes process observations through regime-specific expert networks under conservation-based regularisation, and combine it with physics-informed transfer learning to adapt a reference model to new facilities. Across 13 plants, CPMoE predicts six major pollutants and a composite system-level risk index with source-domain R2 of 0.668-0.904 and 0.666-0.970, respectively; after transfer to 12 target plants these values remain 0.661-0.842 and 0.610-0.841. Expert-utilisation patterns show that adaptation proceeds through structured regime re-weighting rather than re-learning from scratch. Embedding the transferred model in an offline digital twin and screening candidate operating adjustments against historical process records yields consistent risk-index reductions of 3.6-6.3% with simultaneous pollutant co-reductions in 94-100% of evaluated samples. These findings suggest a practical route toward transferable, system-level decision support for carbon-pollutant co-control in heterogeneous waste-to-energy networks.
Thermochemical upgrading of plastic waste is a key upcycling pathway, yet the experimental literature is fragmented by heterogeneous conditions and incomplete reporting. Complete-case learning would retain only 10.99% of the curated experiments, while target imputation can introduce biased supervision. Here we develop a Physics-Calibrated, Missingness-Gated, and Load-Balanced Mixture-of-Experts (PC-MG-MoE) framework that converts structured missingness into an informative learning signal. PC-MG-MoE learns directly from partially observed experiments without target imputation, reconstructs physically consistent product distributions, accommodates cross-laboratory heterogeneity, and provides interpretable model behaviour rather than black-box prediction alone. Under stringent source-grouped validation, it achieved the lowest aggregate absolute error among the evaluated models, supporting engineering screening under cross-laboratory heterogeneity. Wet-lab experiments provide an external comparison, showing key composition-dependent trends. Implemented as an interactive web-based workflow, PC-MG-MoE enables forward screening, physics-grounded constrained inverse design, targeted experimental planning that supports reduced experimental workload and trial-and-error, and laboratory-specific adaptation with new platform-specific data. This work establishes a transferable framework for converting fragmented literature data into experimentally actionable guidance for model-guided plastic upcycling and broader thermochemical systems.
Cement production is among the largest contributors to industrial air pollution, emitting ~3 Mt NOx/year. The industry-standard mitigation approach, selective non-catalytic reduction (SNCR), exhibits low NH3 utilization efficiency, resulting in operational inefficiencies and increased reagent costs. Here, we develop a data-driven framework for emission control using large-scale operational data from four cement plants worldwide. Benchmarking nine machine learning architectures, we observe that prediction error varies ~3-5x across plants due to variation in data richness. Incorporating short-term process history nearly triples NOx prediction accuracy, revealing that NOx formation carries substantial process memory, a timescale dependence that is absent in CO and CO2. Further, we develop models that forecast NOx overshoots as early as nine minutes, providing a buffer for operational adjustments. The developed framework controls NOx formation at the source, reducing NH3 consumption in downstream SNCR. Surrogate model projections estimate a ~34-64% reduction in NOx while preserving clinker quality, corresponding to a reduction of ~290 t NOx/year and ~58,000 USD/year in NH3 savings. This work establishes a generalizable framework for data-driven emission control, offering a pathway toward low-emission operation without structural modifications or additional hardware, with potential applicability to other hard-to-abate industries such as steel, glass, and lime.
Sheikh Junaid Fayaz, Nestor D. Montiel-Bohorquez, Wilson Ricardo Leal da Silva +4
Greenhouse gas emissions estimates can be derived using inverse methods by combining atmospheric concentration observations with chemical transport models. The latter traditionally use physics-driven simulators such as Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Models (LPDMs), which are expensive to run and do not scale well to modern satellites' high resolution data. Previously we developed a performant atmospheric transport emulator that approximates LPDM outputs ("footprints") over South America ~1,000X faster than the UK Met Office's LPDM. Expanding towards global emulation is not straightforward, as atmospheric transport is regionally heterogeneous. This paper evaluates spatial transferability capabilities of models across four world regions: South America, East Asia, South Asia, North Africa using both region-specific and multi-region models, and leave-one-region-out experiments. Regional differences are characterised in the context of input variable and output footprint distributions. This work builds intuition in cross-region generalisation and transfer learning, aiding regional performance towards efficient global emissions estimates.