Adaptive Geodesic Conformal Prediction for Egocentric Camera Pose Estimation

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free reliability guarantees for vision systems, but these guarantees depend on how prediction errors are measured in the output space. Many vision tasks produce outputs on curved spaces (e.g. gaze directions on the sphere or 3D head rotations), yet intermediate prediction heads, residuals, uncertainty estimates, or conformal scores are often defined in flat coordinate charts such as yaw-pitch or Euler angles. We show that this scoring choice introduces systematic geometric distortion near coordinate singularities (large pitch angles on the sphere and poses approaching gimbal lock in 3D rotations). Across four datasets (ETH-XGaze, Gaze360, BIWI, AFLW2000-3D), slice-conditional coverage at a nominal 90% target drops by 30-50 percentage points in these regions, falling to 38.9% on ETH-XGaze and 42.0% on Gaze360 at gaze pitch above 70 degrees, and to 57.5% on BIWI and 55.2% on AFLW2000-3D at head pose pitch above 60 degrees near gimbal lock, despite marginal coverage remaining near 90%. We prove that this is structural. Scalar thresholding changes the size of chart-coordinate prediction sets but leaves their distorted axis ratios unchanged. To diagnose this hidden failure mode, we show that a simple geometric quantity, the Riemannian volume density, strongly correlates with where coverage collapse occurs. Finally, we show that coordinate-free geodesic scoring removes this distortion. It requires no retraining and adds negligible computational cost.

Egocentric 3D human pose estimation from head-mounted stereo cameras is challenging due to fisheye distortion, severe self-occlusion, and frequent truncation of body joints outside the camera field of view. Recent stereo egocentric methods have improved performance through heatmap lifting, stereo correspondence, and transformer-based refinement, but they often rely heavily on frame-local evidence or use temporal information only as auxiliary pose-level context. This limits robustness when current-frame stereo cues are weak, occluded, or ambiguous. We propose TSR-Ego, a temporally guided stereo framework that couples short-term motion evidence with projection-guided feature sampling. The model first enriches dense stereo feature maps using a causal depthwise-separable temporal convolution, allowing past visual evidence to influence the feature space before deformable cross-attention. A single-stage causal stereo decoder then refines learned 3D joint queries through temporal self-attention, joint self-attention, and fisheye deformable stereo cross-attention, using the evolving pose estimate to generate 2D sampling references. Unlike methods that apply temporal reasoning mainly after pose prediction, TSR-Ego uses motion context to shape both the sampled stereo features and the joint representations while preserving online inference without future frames. Experiments on UnrealEgo2 and UnrealEgo-RW show state-of-the-art performance, with especially strong gains on real-world sequences.

We propose a framework for vision-based human pose estimation and motion prediction that gives conformal prediction guarantees for certifiably safe human-robot collaboration. Our framework combines aleatoric uncertainty estimation with OOD detection for high probabilistic confidence. To integrate our pipeline in certifiable safety frameworks, we propose conformal prediction sets for human motion predictions with high, valid confidence. We evaluate our pipeline on recorded human motion data and a real-world human-robot collaboration setting.