Closed-Loop CO2 Storage Control With History-Based Reinforcement Learning and Latent Model-Based Adaptation

The use of variable well perforation and injection strategies can improve the efficiency of geological carbon storage operations. We develop a new multimodal auto-regressive transformer surrogate to model these operations under geological uncertainty. A modified SEAM CO2 geomodel, which involves a faulted system with three stacked aquifers, is considered. The two injection wells are perforated in stages, from bottom to top, with the stage durations and individual well injection rates treated as control variables. The surrogate model processes three input modalities - the 3D geomodel, scalar parameters characterizing relative permeability functions, and control variables - through separate encoders. These are fused via self-attention in a transformer encoder, and a temporal decoder generates predictions auto-regressively through encoder-decoder cross-attention. The surrogate is trained, using 4000 GEOS flow simulations, to predict saturation and pressure at monitoring locations, total injected and mobile CO2 mass, and saturation footprints. For a new test set, involving randomly sampled geomodels and control variables, the surrogate achieves a median saturation MAE of 0.028 and median relative errors of 0.2-5% for the other quantities of interest. Importantly, it captures the switch from rate to bottom-hole-pressure control. The surrogate model is used within a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo data assimilation procedure for a synthetic true model under three operational strategies. Substantial uncertainty reduction is achieved for key metaparameters, particularly the fault permeabilities. Posterior predictions for saturation footprints and total injected and mobile CO2 mass are also shown to be generally consistent with true model results.

A key capability of intelligent agents is operating under partial observability: reasoning and acting effectively despite missing or incomplete state observations. While recurrent (memory-based) policies learned via reinforcement learning address this by encoding history into latent state representations, their internal dynamics remain uninterpretable black boxes. This paper establishes a formal link between these hidden states and the Pontryagin minimum principle (PMP) from optimal control. We demonstrate that for standard recurrent architectures, latent representations map directly to PMP co-states, which allows the readout layer to be interpreted as performing Hamiltonian minimization. Because standard reward maximization does not naturally discover this alignment, we introduce a PMP-derived co-state loss to explicitly structure the internal dynamics. Empirically, this approach matches or improves performance on partially observable DMControl tasks, and is robust against zero-shot out-of-distribution sensor masking. By framing recurrent networks as dynamic processes governed by the minimum principle, we provide a principled approach to designing robust continuous control policies.

Buildings are expected to shift cooling loads in response to grid conditions. Thermal energy storage (TES) enables this shift, but scheduling it well requires planning hours ahead under storage constraints. Model predictive control (MPC) and reinforcement learning are difficult to scale across buildings. This study instead adapts an open-weight reasoning model through reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). We convert exact offline dynamic-programming (DP) action values into dense rewards for every candidate action. Using only 30 training prompts, reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT) trains the model as an upper-level scheduler that outputs hourly heat-pump setpoints from text-based states and forecasts. Evaluation uses a deliberately simple office-building TES benchmark where exact DP is tractable and the optimum is known. RFT reduces the open-weight model's emissions from 70.5 to 61.2 kg-CO2, close to the DP optimum of 60.8 kg-CO2. GPT-5 nearly matches DP and MPC without task-specific training, while GPT-4o, a non-reasoning LLM, produces higher emissions than the no-storage baseline, so inference-time reasoning appears important. Trace analysis shows that RFT mainly stabilizes observable planning patterns (candidate comparison, look-ahead, and feasibility checking) rather than creating a new strategy. Robustness and generalization tests clarify what transfers: the reinforced planning patterns persist under forecast errors and an unseen TES condition and carry over to a battery task, but its different structure limits the gains. DP-based verifiable rewards offer a practical way to adapt open-weight reasoning models to building storage scheduling. These results motivate higher-fidelity tests of whole-building control and scalable verifiers for city-scale energy management.