Why do Large Language Models Fail in Low-resource Translation? Unraveling the Token Dynamics of Large Language Models for Machine Translation

Large language models (LLMs) offer a promising approach to machine translation (MT) for extremely low-resource languages by incorporating linguistic resources through in-context learning. However, LLMs often struggle to apply grammatical information effectively during translation. Inspired by recent progress in chain-of-thought reasoning, we investigate whether low-resource MT can benefit from structured intermediate steps of linguistic analysis and grammatical reasoning. We propose a pipeline for automatically generating step-by-step linguistic reasoning traces from Universal Dependencies treebanks, dictionaries, and grammar-rule banks. We evaluate these traces in three settings: in-context learning (ICL), supervised fine-tuning (SFT), and reinforcement fine-tuning (RFT), on Xibe and Chintang as test cases. Our results show that linguistic reasoning traces are most effective as inference-time guidance: in ICL, reliable sentence-specific traces substantially improve translation performance across most models, languages, and metrics. In contrast, using the linguistic reasoning traces as training data yields smaller and less consistent gains, as models learn the trace format but often generate erroneous content. These findings suggest that LLMs can leverage grammatical information for low-resource MT when given reliable linguistic analyses, while learning to generate such analyses remains a major bottleneck.

Latent-reasoning looped language models (LoopLMs) offer a different scaling path for machine translation (MT): instead of increasing parameter count or emitting explicit chain-of-thought tokens, they spend additional recurrent computation inside hidden states. We introduce LatentMT, the first systematic study of latent-reasoning LoopLMs for machine translation. LatentMT adapts a small 2.6B-parameter backbone model with lightweight training. Across 32 translation directions spanning high-, mid-, and low-resource languages, LatentMT achieves performance comparable to models three to five times larger. It is competitive in a high-resource language and achieves state-of-the-art performance on both mid-resource and low-resource languages. Studying the behavior of scaling the number of recurrent reasoning steps, we find that recurrent computation consistently improves translation quality in early steps, then saturates quickly afterwards. Our mechanistic analysis shows that hidden-representation differences shrink along the recurrent reasoning-step axis, supporting the observed saturation in performance. Finally, our efficiency analysis shows that LatentMT requires lower training and inference compute than much larger non-latent-reasoning models with similar performance, making latent recurrent computation a promising path toward compact, efficient, and strong machine translation.

The rapid rise in popularity of large language models (LLMs) for translation calls for a thorough study of the reliability of their confidence in their own outputs. Unlike many generation tasks, translation errors and confidence levels can be useful at different levels of granularity (tokens, words, or spans). Unsupervised approaches based on internal signals like predicted probabilities can be misleading because they reflect certainty among alternatives rather than correctness. In addition, they require access to such internal signals. Here, we devise five verbalized methods of extracting an LLM's per-token confidence without those shortcomings and compare their reliability with that of the model's internal signals of certainty. We evaluate reliability using two forms of alignment: fine-grained error detection and calibration. For both, internal and verbalized methods perform similarly, although results vary by model. Interestingly, we find little to no correlation between internal and verbalized methods.