Susceptibilities and Patterning: A Primer on Linear Response in Bayesian Learning

Susceptibilities are a technique for neural network interpretability that studies the response of posterior expectation values of observables to perturbations of the loss. We generalize this construction to the setting of the regret in deep reinforcement learning and investigate the utility of susceptibilities in a simple gridworld model that nevertheless exhibits non-trivial stagewise development. We argue that susceptibilities reveal internal features of the development of the model in parameter space that one cannot detect purely by studying the development of the learned policy. We validate these results with activation-steering, and discuss the framework's extension to RLHF post-training.

The Hessian matrix is an important quantity of interest when it comes to studying the loss landscape and optimization dynamics in deep learning, as well as designing measures of generalization, second-order learning algorithms, etc. Prior works have focused on empirical results or pursued a theoretical treatment under overly simplified settings. In this work, we derive the eigenvalues of the Hessian of linear networks with arbitrary widths and depths, and datasets with an arbitrary number of samples, features, and labels. Importantly, for classification tasks with MSE loss, we identify that the sharpness of the solution is directly related to the maximum proportion of samples belonging to any class. We empirically validate our predictions and systematically analyze the effects of shedding the impractical assumptions one at a time, as well as incorporating nonlinearities. We observe that our predictions are considerably robust in most cases, allowing us to extend our conclusions to more practical learning setups.

Bayesian neural networks are typically trained against the evidence lower bound (ELBO), whose Jensen gap closes only when the variational posterior is exact. We instead train by local consistency: gradient descent on the Bethe free energy, driving the belief at every factor toward agreement with its neighbours rather than placing a loss on the output. The resulting objective scores each observation by its own predictive density: a strictly proper rule whose optimum is the true conditional, for any likelihood with a tractable predictive convolution. Instantiated with a Gaussian last layer over a deterministic backbone, exact inference appears as one known corner: the neural-linear marginal likelihood. That corner is evidence-optimal; the shared-cavity, free-routed interior is predictive-optimal, improving NLL and calibration over it. This instance, SCROLL (Shared-Cavity fRee-rOuting Last-Layer), is a single-pass Bayesian neural network: batchable, any-likelihood, and implicitly empirical-Bayes-prior precision, observation noise, covariance, and backbone fit in one gradient pass. Prior work enters the interior only through the ELBO and its Jensen gap, even in this conjugate setting. At a single training run and forward pass per architecture-where the validation-tuned conventional references cross-validate $λ$ and ensembles pay $5$-$50\times$ at inference-a fixed SCROLL variant is best-or-tied on NLL and calibration on 7/8 UCI regression benchmarks, and best on 4/5 across three large tabular datasets (up to 515k examples) and two frozen text/vision embeddings.