Prediction sets provide a theoretically grounded framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models. Adapting them to structured generation tasks, in particular, large language model (LLM) based code generation, remains a challenging problem. An existing attempt proposes PAC prediction sets but is limited by its strong monotonicity assumption on risk and single-label classification framework, which severely limits the space of candidate programs and cannot accommodate the multiple valid outputs inherent to code generation. To address these limitations, we propose an approach RisCoSet that leverages multiple hypothesis testing to construct risk-controlling predictions for LLM-based code generation. Given a trained code generation model, we produce a prediction set represented by a partial program, which is guaranteed to contain a correct solution with high confidence. Extensive experiments on three LLMs demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. For instance, compared with the state-of-the-art, our method can significantly reduce the code removal by up to 24.5%, at the same level of risk.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed as code generators, where silently wrong programs pose real safety and reliability risks. Reliable uncertainty estimation (UE) is essential for selective prediction, human-in-the-loop review, and downstream agentic decisions. Yet most existing code UE methods are inherited from natural language (NL) generation and ignore properties that make code distinct. We argue that code differs from NL in three ways: a single wrong token can break an entire program (token fragility); algorithmic intent and concrete implementation can disagree independently (intent-code gap); and programs can be executed (executability). We instantiate these properties as three orthogonal uncertainty axes: lexical (Top-K token entropy), algorithmic (pseudo-code consistency), and functional (behavioral consistency). Across five code LLMs, our three-axis ensemble improves average AUROC from 0.696 for the strongest NL-derived baseline to 0.776 (+8.1 points). Notably, on Qwen3-14B, our single-pass Top-K token entropy matches the strongest multi-pass baseline while being over 3x cheaper; across models, it remains a competitive low-cost signal. These results suggest that code UE deserves code-specific design rather than direct NL ports.
Large language models have shown impressive capabilities in code generation, yet they often produce functionally incorrect code. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods have emerged as a promising approach for detecting hallucinations in natural language generation, but their effectiveness for code generation tasks remains underexplored. We systematically evaluate how UQ techniques transfer to code generation across three programming languages, five LLMs, and over 1,700 problems. We find that some token-probability-based methods generalize effectively without modification, while sampling-based methods relying on natural language inference (NLI) fail because NLI models cannot distinguish functionally different code, causing most responses to collapse into a single semantic cluster. To address this, we introduce functional equivalence methods, a family of code-specific methods that replace NLI-based semantic equivalence with an LLM-based functional equivalence assessment, including functional entropy, a code-specific analog of semantic entropy. Functional equivalence methods achieve top AUROC in 11 out of 15 model-benchmark combinations and the best calibration across most settings, consistently outperforming both NLI-based counterparts and all other methods evaluated.
Dylan Bouchard, Mohit Singh Chauhan, Zeya Ahmad +1
Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized automated code generation. One serious concern, however, is the so-called ``hallucination'', i.e., LLMs may generate seemingly plausible but functionally incorrect code. In this paper, we study the task abstention problem, i.e., determining whether a given LLM should abstain from performing a specific code generation task to avoid likely hallucination. Our approach features a calibrated abstention rule, grounded in the principles of multiple hypothesis testing. The rule assesses generation consistency through code execution outcomes, allowing it to handle syntactic diversity of semantically equivalent code without reliance on oracle test cases or external databases. We prove that our approach provides a rigorous, distribution-free theoretical guarantee on its abstention decisions. We evaluate our method on benchmark datasets using several open-source code LLMs. Results show that our method allows generative models to more accurately and efficiently identify and abstain from tasks that induce hallucination compared to existing techniques, providing a reliable mechanism for safer and more robust code generation.