Uncertainty-Aware Prediction of Lung Tumor Growth from Sparse Longitudinal CT Data via Bayesian Physics-Informed Neural Networks

Longitudinal medical imaging captures temporal evolution of lesions, yet extracting the underlying dynamical parameters governing this evolution remains challenging. We propose an inverse Bayesian framework for inferring lesion dynamics from longitudinal spectral CT. We decompose spectral feature ($x$) evolution into three components: \begin{equation*} \frac{dx_i}{dt} = A_i x_i + B \cdot n + C \cdot Δx_{\text{sat}} \end{equation*} where $A_i$ captures intrinsic dynamics (lesion-autonomous evolution), $B$ captures local environment tumour burden (organ tumour burden through satellite count coupling), and $C$ captures environment/satellite state change (i.e., whether surrounding lesions move similarly or not). We demonstrate the framework on photon-counting NSCLC CT data from metastases, recovering distinct dynamical regimes: lung lesions exhibit significant satellite count coupling ($B=-0.34$, $p<0.05$) suggesting competitive dynamics, while liver lesions show synergistic satellite behaviour coupling ($C\approx+1.0$, $p<0.05$). Synthetic validation confirms parameter recovery, and cross-coupling analysis validates that our method detects non-zero coupling when present. This work establishes inverse dynamical inference as a principled methodology for extracting interpretable parameters from longitudinal imaging, moving beyond static feature extraction toward mechanistic characterisation of lesion behaviour. The code and data are available at: https://github.com/lukasf98/inverse-bayesian-inference

Brain tumors such as glioma, meningioma, and pituitary adenoma alter the mechanical behavior of soft brain tissue, yet common diagnostic methods rely on static imaging that cannot capture tumor growth, tissue displacement, or changes in stiffness over time. Deep learning models for this task typically require pooling patient data at one site, which conflicts with privacy rules such as GDPR and HIPAA and limits generalization across institutions, a challenge that is pronounced in neuro oncology given patient diversity. This study presents a federated physics informed neural network combining federated learning with a physics informed loss built on the equations of linear elasticity. Three simulated clinical sites each train a local network on patient specific MRI data using a physics informed loss, and only model weights are shared with a central server through the FedAvg protocol over one hundred rounds, keeping raw data at its site of origin. The federated model reached an overall accuracy of 91.4%, against 90.0% for a non federated baseline trained on pooled data, an average AUC of 0.985 across tumor classes, and a rise in pituitary tumor accuracy from 85.6 to 94.5%. Training produced smooth, divergence free displacement fields consistent with expected tissue deformation, showing that federated training can be paired with physics based constraints without a meaningful loss in performance.

Multimodal MRI is essential for accurate brain tumor segmentation. However, acquiring all modalities at inference is often challenging in practice, which causes intrinsic uncertainty due to unavoidable information loss. Without modeling this uncertainty, existing methods encode incomplete evidence into deterministic representations that appear plausible but lack reliability. In this regime, we propose a probabilistic representation framework that models representations as Gaussian distributions, where their mean captures task information and their variance measures uncertainty from missing evidence. To make variance reflect information deficiency, we regularize the mean from each partial configuration toward its full-modality counterpart, while scaling the variance with the discrepancy between their aligned means. We further introduce a set-inclusive strategy that exploits the hierarchical structure of modality subsets and enforces an ordering constraint to maintain their consistent uncertainty relationships. Extensive experiments on BraTS 2018 and 2020 demonstrate that our approach offers superior performance over baselines across diverse missing-modality scenarios. Code and model checkpoint are available at https://github.com/atlas-sky/SIUM.