A Hierarchical Language Model with Predictable Scaling Laws and Provable Benefits of Reasoning

Modern language models reason within bounded context, an inherent constraint that poses a fundamental barrier to long-horizon reasoning. We identify recursion as a core principle for overcoming this barrier, and propose recursive models as a minimal realization, where the model can recursively invoke itself to solve subtasks in isolated contexts. We prove that any computable problem admits a recursive decomposition of reasoning in which each subtask requires only exponentially smaller active context than standard autoregressive models; this strictly surpasses any context management approach confined to a single sequence, such as summarization. We further generalize our framework to modern agentic systems with arbitrary context processing and control flows, and prove that recursive models can achieve optimal power within this broader class. Experimentally, we test two settings: fine-tuning a pretrained base model for recursive SAT solving, and training a small model from scratch on Go traces generated by exact game-tree search. Both show improved long-horizon accuracy with small active contexts.

Many works make the eye-catching claim that Transformers are Turing-complete. However, the literature often conflates two distinct settings: (i) a fixed Transformer system setting, in which a fixed autoregressive Transformer is coupled with a fixed context-management method to process inputs of different lengths step by step, and (ii) a scaling-family setting, in which a family of different models (with increasing context-window length or numerical precision) is used to handle different input lengths. Existing proofs of Transformer Turing-completeness are frequently established in setting (ii), whereas real-world LLM deployment and the standard notion of Turing-completeness correspond more naturally to setting (i). In this paper, we first formalize the fixed-system setting, thereby providing a concrete characterization of how real-world LLMs operate. We then argue that results proved in the scaling-family setting provide theoretically meaningful resource bounds but do not establish Turing-completeness, thereby clarifying a common misinterpretation of existing results. Finally, we show that different context-management methods can yield sharply different computational power, and we advocate the position that context management is a central component that critically determines the computational power of real-world autoregressive Transformers.

Autoregressive generation lies at the heart of the mechanism of large language models. It can be viewed as the repeated application of a next-token generator: starting from an input string (prompt), the generator is applied for $M$ steps, and the last generated token is taken as the final output. [Joshi et al., 2025] proposed a PAC model for studying the learnability of the input-output maps arising from this process. We develop an online analogue of this framework, focusing on the mistake bound of learning the final output induced by an unknown next-token generator. We distinguish between two forms of feedback. In the End-to-End model, after each round the learner observes only the final token produced after $M$ autoregressive steps. In the Chain-of-Thought model, the learner is additionally shown the entire $M$-step trajectory. Our goal is to understand how the optimal mistake bound depends on the generation horizon $M$, and to what extent observing intermediate tokens can reduce this dependence. Our main results show that the online theory of autoregressive learning exhibits a qualitative picture analogous to the statistical one found by [Hanneke et al., 2026], but with a different scale of dependence on the generation horizon. In the End-to-End model, we prove a taxonomy of possible mistake-bound growth rates in the generation horizon $M$: essentially any rate between constant and logarithmic can arise. We further show that this logarithmic ceiling is unavoidable. In the Chain-of-Thought model, we show that access to the full generated trajectory eliminates the dependence on $M$ altogether. We also analyze autoregressive linear threshold classes, and prove optimal mistake bounds, as well as a new lower bound for the statistical setting. Along the way, our results resolve several questions left open by [Joshi et al., 2025].