COTCAgent: Preventive Consultation via Probabilistic Chain-of-Thought Completion
Authors: Zihan Deng, Xiaozhen Zhong, Chuanzhi Xu
Organizations: School of Computing and Data Science, The University of Hong Kong · 2Shenzhen Institute for Advanced Study, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China · School of Computer Science, The University of Sydney
Abstract
As large language models empower healthcare, intelligent clinical decision support has developed rapidly. Longitudinal electronic health records (EHR) provide essential temporal evidence for accurate clinical diagnosis and analysis. However, current large language models have critical flaws in longitudinal EHR reasoning. First, lacking fine-grained statistical reasoning, they often hallucinate clinical trends and metrics when quantitative evidence is textually implied, biasing diagnostic inference. Second, non-uniform time series and scarce labels in longitudinal EHR hinder models from capturing long-range temporal dependencies, limiting reliable clinical reasoning. To address the above limitations, this work presents the Probabilistic Chain-of-Thought Completion Agent (COTCAgent), a hierarchical reasoning framework for longitudinal electronic health records. It consists of three core modules. The Temporal-Statistics Adapter (TSA) converts analytical plans into executable code for standardized trend output. The Chain-of-Thought Completion (COTC) layer leverages a symptom-trend-disease knowledge base with weighted scoring to evaluate disease risk, while the bounded completion module acquires structured evidence through standardized inquiries and iterative scoring constraints to ensure rigorous reasoning. By decoupling statistical computation, feature matching, and language generation, the framework eliminates reliance on complex multi-modal inputs and enables efficient longitudinal record analysis with lower computational overhead. Experimental results show that COTCAgent powered by Baichuan-M2 achieves 90.47% Top-1 accuracy on the self-built dataset and 70.41% on HealthBench, outperforming existing medical agents and mainstream large language models. The code is available at https://github.com/FrankDengAI/COTCAgent/.
Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong natural-language reasoning abilities for clinical decision support, but struggle to effectively model structured longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). In contrast, EHR foundation models can learn predictive patient representations, yet lack interpretable language-based reasoning. To bridge this gap, we propose ChatHealthAI, a multimodal reasoning framework that aligns structured EHR representations from a pretrained EHR foundation model with the semantic space of a frozen LLM through a task-aware resampler. By integrating longitudinal patient representations with refined clinical event descriptions, ChatHealthAI enables clinically grounded natural-language reasoning while maintaining accurate patient prediction. We evaluated ChatHealthAI on three clinical predictive tasks from the EHRSHOT benchmark. Results show that ChatHealthAI improves reasoning quality and interpretability while preserving competitive predictive performance. These findings highlight the potential of integrating EHR foundation models with pretrained LLMs for interpretable clinical prediction.
Electronic Health Records (EHR) contain rich longitudinal patient information and are widely used in predictive modeling applications. However, effectively leveraging historical data remains challenging due to long trajectories, heterogeneous events, temporal irregularity, and the varying relevance of past clinical context. Existing approaches often rely on fixed windows or uniform aggregation, which can obscure clinically important signals. In this work, we introduce EHR-RAGp, a retrieval-augmented foundation model that dynamically integrates the most relevant patient history across diverse clinical event types. We propose a prototype-guided retrieval module that acts as an alignment mechanism and estimates the relevance of retrieved historical chunks with respect to a given prediction task, guiding the model towards the most informative context. Across multiple clinical prediction tasks, EHR-RAGp consistently outperforms state-of-the-art EHR foundation models and transformer-based baselines. Furthermore, integrating EHR-RAGp with existing clinical foundation models yields substantial performance gains. Overall, EHR-RAGp provides a scalable and efficient framework for leveraging long-range clinical context to improve downstream performance.
Clinical agents promise to democratize access to electronic health records (EHRs), yet existing benchmarks fail to reflect the complexity of practical EHR analysis, e.g., often operating on idealized, clean EHRs via static SQL generation rather than interactive execution. In this work, we introduce EHR-Complex, a large-scale benchmark designed for interactive clinical database reasoning. Built on the large MIMIC-IV substrate (365K patients, 31 tables, 500M+ records), EHR-Complex comprises about 52K tasks spanning six clinical intents, supporting both patient-level and population-level queries, where each task requires an agent to interact with a sandboxed environment by executing SQL queries or Python code. Notably, EHR-Complex considers the real-world SQL task complexity for longitudinal multi-table aggregation and compositional reasoning, resulting in 31.93 SQL structural components per query on average. Evaluation results on EHR-Complex reveal the clinical difficulty of these EHR reasoning scenarios, with the top-performing model achieving only 62.3% exact-match accuracy. Pass^k consistency drops below 50% for nearly all evaluated models at k=4, exposing broad stochastic fragility. A fine-grained analysis of more than 3,800 failed trajectories for representative LLMs reveals three dominant failure modes: SQL logic errors, medical-code lookup failures, and semantic misunderstandings. EHR-Complex provides a rigorous testbed for clinical agents and highlights remaining gaps in robust reasoning for large-scale EHR analysis.