An Application-Layer Multi-Modal Covert-Channel Reference Monitor for LLM Agent Egress

When LLM agents are coerced into covertly encoding sensitive data (Base64, ROT13, acrostic, synonym chains, and beyond), the resulting outputs evade output-side detection but the underlying computation does not. Across nine encoding families and eight models from five architecture families, that computation is supported by a shared low-dimensional encoding subspace in the residual stream. A logistic-regression probe trained on eight encoding families recovers the held-out ninth at AUC 0.975-1.000, reading the computation rather than surface features. The same direction exhibits a second mechanistic signature at the planning token, flipping polarity to activate positively when the model will simulate the encoding inline and negatively when it will outsource it to a tool call, distinguishing two execution strategies before the encoded text exists. We build MIRAGE (Model-Internal Readout of Agentic Generation Exfiltration), a two-channel real-time monitor exploiting both signals. On 126 agentic exfiltration scenarios, it reaches AUC = 0.918, substantially outperforming output-only detection (AUC = 0.518). Monitor performance is fundamentally a property of the host model's geometry: benign-encoding false-positive rate ranges from 0% on Qwen-7B to 100% on Phi-3.5, revealing that the probe faithfully reads whether a model's geometry separates covert from overt encoding. Across all tested adversarial budgets, every attack suppressing the subspace also destroyed encoding fidelity, reported as an empirical regularity on the evaluated budgets, not a structural impossibility claim.

Tool-using agents built on large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed not by a single operator but by many, side by side on shared infrastructure. This creates a population-level risk that single-agent safeguards miss: a handful of agents can quietly coordinate, rigging a market, boosting one another in a review process, or timing a joint data grab, while each one looks perfectly well-behaved. The difficulty is that the organisations running these agents cannot see inside one another's models, so any realistic detector must work from behaviour alone: black-box, trace-only, and often with only partial visibility. We treat covert coordination as an information-hiding problem and build a black-box steganalysis detector that combines cross-run mutual-information estimation, permutation tests, distributional-shift statistics, and timing and tool-call side channels, all calibrated to a fixed false-positive budget. Our central move is to stop testing against a single fixed code: we pit the detector against an adversary that continually rewrites its encoding to slip past whatever the detector has learned, and we run this red-versus-blue contest in tool-using, memory-carrying environments rather than toy games. Capacity theory then tells us what to expect, a detection-capacity frontier, a covert bit-rate below which black-box detection is provably no better than chance. We set out an experiment to map this frontier, report clearly labelled placeholder results pending measurement, and flag a practical evasion, spreading a payload across sessions, that current methods largely miss.

Monitoring autonomous large language model (LLM) agents for covert malicious behavior is challenging due to delayed, context-dependent, and long-horizon attack patterns. Agents may pursue hidden objectives while maintaining superficially benign behavior, making detection difficult even with full trajectory access. Prior monitoring approaches improve scaffolding or ensemble aggregation, but treat each trajectory independently and do not learn from prior monitoring experience. Moreover, standard reasoning methods explain observed behavior without explicitly reasoning about agent beliefs, intentions, and goal alignment required to distinguish benign task execution from covert deviation. We propose \textbf{Agent-ToM}, a learning-to-monitor framework grounded in Theory-of-Mind (ToM) reasoning for security analysis of autonomous agents. Agent-ToM performs structured full-trajectory analysis by inferring beliefs, intent hypotheses with calibrated confidence, expected actions, and deviations from task-consistent behavioral baselines. At inference time, it employs a \textit{Reason-Verify-Refine} pipeline to construct and validate monitoring decisions. At training time, Agent-ToM distills critique signals into a persistent \textit{semantic guardrail memory}, enabling reusable belief- and intent-conditioned constraints across episodes. We evaluate Agent-ToM on adversarial agent monitoring benchmarks (SHADE-Arena and CUA-SHADE-Arena). Agent-ToM achieves strong precision-recall balance and outperforms state-of-the-art monitoring baselines, including ensemble methods, while using a coherent two-call reasoning pipeline. These results demonstrate that learning at the monitoring layer, combined with structured ToM reasoning and verification, provides an effective and deployable foundation for securing autonomous LLM agents.