Teaching Language Models to Forecast Research Success Through Comparative Idea Evaluation

Large language models increasingly generate research ideas, yet judging their novelty or feasibility at generation time does not establish whether they anticipate subsequent work. We introduce IdeaForecastBench to evaluate research idea forecasting. Given a community's literature up to a cutoff, a system produces up to five ranked ideas, which are evaluated against later papers. The benchmark comprises 624 rolling episodes across 52 topics, with a fixed retrieve-then-judge protocol and separately reported results from two judges. We compare five history-compression strategies across GPT-4.1, Qwen2.5-7B/14B, and Qwen3.5-9B, together with a learned Mode-Decomposition Forecaster (MDF). Under the primary GPT-4.1-mini judge, Summary improves on Direct in Hit@5 and Precision@5 across all four backbones. Qwen2.5 scores above GPT-4.1, whereas Qwen3.5 scores below it. An outcome-blind assessment finds that Qwen2.5 produces broader forecasts, but does not identify how much breadth contributes to its advantage. Threshold and judge diagnostics further clarify the limits of interpreting realization as precise anticipation. IdeaForecastBench provides a common task for studying which research ideas a community subsequently pursues and how reliably this outcome can be measured.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant potential to accelerate scientific discovery as valuable tools for analyzing data, generating hypotheses, and supporting innovative approaches in various scientific fields. In this work, we investigate how LLMs can handle the transition from conceptual research ideas to well-structured research plans. Effective research planning not only supports scientists in advancing their research but also represents a crucial capability for the development of autonomous research agents. Despite its importance, the field lacks a systematic understanding of LLMs' research planning capability. To rigorously measure this capability, we introduce the Idea2Plan task and Idea2Plan Bench, a set of benchmarks built from ICML 2025 and Nature Mental Health papers released after major LLM training cutoffs. Each benchmark instance includes a research idea and a grading rubric capturing the key components of valid plans. We further propose Idea2Plan JudgeEval, a complementary benchmark to assess the reliability of LLM-based judges against expert annotations. Experimental results show that GPT-5 achieves the strongest performance on the benchmark, though substantial headroom remains for improvement. Our study provides new insights into LLMs' capability for research planning and lays the groundwork for future progress.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to assist ideation in research, but evaluating the quality of LLM-generated research proposals remains difficult: novelty and soundness are hard to measure automatically, and large-scale human evaluation is costly. We propose a verifiable alternative by reframing proposal generation as a time-sliced scientific forecasting problem. Given a research question and inspiring papers available before a cutoff time, the model generates a structured proposal and is evaluated by whether it anticipates research directions that appear in papers published after the time. We operationalize this objective with the Future Alignment Score (FAS), computed via retrieval and LLM-based semantic scoring against a held-out future corpus. To train models, we build a time-consistent dataset of 21,835 paper occurrences across 3,642 instances from targets and their pre-cutoff citations, and synthesize reasoning traces that teach gap identification and inspiration borrowing. Across Llama-3.1 and Qwen2.5 models, future-aligned tuning improves future alignment over unaligned baselines (up to +10.6% overall FAS), and domain-expert human evaluation corroborates improved proposal quality. Finally, we demonstrate practical impact by implementing two model-generated proposals with a code agent, obtaining 4.17% accuracy gain on MATH from a new prompting strategy and consistent improvements for a novel model-merging method. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/Arthur-Heng/future-aligned-proposals.