Theoretical Analysis of Engression and Reverse Markov Engression

Engression (Shen and Meinshausen, 2024) learns a conditional distribution by fitting a generative model $Y = f(X,\varepsilon)$ under the energy score, a strictly proper scoring rule. We provide a theoretical error analysis of engression implemented with deep neural networks. We decompose the excess risk into three components: the approximation error, the stochastic error, and the Monte Carlo error. Based on this decomposition, we establish convergence rates under the assumption that the target conditional generator admits a compositional smoothness structure.

Modern conditional generative models face significant challenges when learning complex covariate dependencies. While sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) provides a principled approach to compress these dependencies, traditional SDR frameworks were not formulated for conditional generation. To bridge this gap, we propose Belted Engression, a unified and architecturally parameter-efficient framework for generative distributional regression. Our approach establishes an end-to-end compress-then-generate paradigm driven by sufficient representation learning, embedding a structural bottleneck into the generative architecture. Theoretically, we prove that the standard SDR condition is equivalent to a law-preserving generative factorization, which is achieved at the global optimum of the population Belted Engression objective. Furthermore, by uncovering a localized Bernstein-type control for the energy-score loss, we establish finite-sample convergence rates that are sharper than those of existing results. We also prove that this belted architecture is strictly smaller, operating with an asymptotically vanishing parameter count relative to the unstructured baseline. Extensive simulations and real-world applications demonstrate that Belted Engression achieves superior distributional prediction and SDR recovery with fewer trainable parameters.

Discrete diffusion has become a leading framework for generative modeling in various applications including language, vision, and biology. Existing convergence theory, however, exhibits fundamental limitations. KL-based analyses diverge under singular priors such as the masked distribution, while bounds in total variation (TV) depend on the vocabulary size $S$ and become vacuous for modern language tasks, where vocabularies contain hundreds of thousands of tokens. We develop a unified adjoint-equation-based framework that establishes vocabulary-size-independent convergence guarantees in any integral probability metric (IPM). To the best of our knowledge, our bounds are the first to be entirely free of $S$ and applicable to both masked and uniform priors. Importantly, our results can extend existing step complexity guarantees to any IPM. Also, our theory relies only on a single standard rate-matrix regularity assumption and applies to general priors. Five novel techniques drive our improvements: 1. working in the space of observables via adjoint equations rather than directly with probability measures; 2. a regularity analysis that yields bounds on any IPM; 3. a coupling argument that removes $S$-dependence under uniform transitions; and 4. score-marginal cancellation and 5. exit-routing techniques that remove $S$-dependence under masked transitions. Our framework thus sharply departs from prior analyses and avoids the shortcomings of pathspace-KL and existing TV-based approaches. Beyond convergence bounds, our framework provides a versatile toolkit for further theoretical study of discrete diffusion models, including principled choices of loss functions and vocabulary-size-independent step complexity.