Unveiling the Entropy Dynamics of Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning improves large reasoning models (LRMs) on complex tasks but often produces long, redundant traces. Recent training-free early-exit methods shorten these traces by choosing an intermediate point to stop reasoning. We study one such strategy that injects an end-of-think token (EoT, </think>) at this point to trigger the reasoning-to-answering transition, and find that the injected EoT does not always induce a clean answering phase. Answering-phase generation can continue before the model regenerates another EoT, with the span preceding this regenerated EoT scaling with the reasoning tokens saved by early exit and exhibiting continued reasoning behavior. We call this spurious CoT termination, where reasoning-like generation continues into the answering phase. We hypothesize that insufficient attention to the injected EoT contributes to spurious CoT termination and probe this hypothesis with Exit-token Attention Biasing (EAB). Across four LRMs, five benchmarks, and two early-exit methods, increasing attention to the injected EoT reduces spurious CoT termination and answering-phase length. These results reveal a limitation of controlling LRMs by externally matching their explicit think-block format. Inserting the EoT token conforms to this format but does not by itself guarantee the intended reasoning-to-answering transition. Our code is available at https://github.com/Seunghee-Koh/Spurious-CoT-Termination.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning with self-consistency improves performance by aggregating multiple sampled reasoning paths. In this setting, correctness is no longer tied to a single reasoning trace but to the aggregation rule over a pool of candidate paths, making aggregation uncertainty the central challenge. This issue is critical where confidently incorrect answers are far more costly than abstentions. We introduce a conformal procedure for CoT reasoning that directly addresses aggregation uncertainty. Our approach replaces majority voting with weighted score aggregation over reasoning paths and calibrates an abstention rule using conformal risk control. This approach leads to finite-sample guarantees on the confident-error rate--the probability that the system answers and is wrong. We further identify score separability as the key condition under which abstention provably improves selective accuracy, and derive closed-form expressions that predict accuracy gains from calibration data alone. The method is fully inference-time, and requires no retraining. Across four benchmarks, four open-source models, and three score classes, realized confident-error rates are consistent with the prescribed targets up to calibration-split and test-set variability. Our method achieves $90.1\%$ selective accuracy on GSM8K by abstaining on less than $5\%$ of problems, compared with $82\%$ accuracy under majority-voting baseline.

Chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning has become the default strategy for enhancing LLM capabilities, yet its application raises a fundamental question: when is explicit reasoning actually beneficial? Empirical evidence reveals a striking paradox: CoT often provides marginal or even negative gains on factual and open-ended tasks while multiplying token consumption. In this work, we show that LLM reasoning is not a static property of tasks or models, but a \emph{dynamic decoding state} that emerges during generation. Through systematic analysis, we find early-stage entropy dynamics provide a reliable signal of this state: tasks benefiting from CoT exhibit consistent entropy reduction, while others display unstable or increasing patterns. This behavior can be interpreted as a phase-transition-like shift from a high-entropy exploratory regime to a low-entropy structured reasoning regime. Based on these insights, we propose \textbf{EDRM} (Entropy Dynamics-based Reasoning Manifold), a lightweight and training-free routing framework that leverages early decoding entropy to adaptively select inference strategies. EDRM embeds entropy trajectories into a compact and interpretable manifold representation, enabling both zero-shot deployment and fine-grained instance-level adaptation. Across 15 benchmarks and 4 LLMs of varying scales and architectures, EDRM consistently outperforms static baselines. At the dataset level, EDRM achieves \textbf{41--55%} token reduction while improving accuracy with as few as 50 calibration samples. At the instance level, it further improves accuracy by up to \textbf{4.7%} while maintaining \textbf{27--45%} token savings. These results suggest that reasoning should be invoked selectively rather than by default, and demonstrate the effectiveness of entropy-driven decoding control for efficient and adaptive LLM inference.