Conditional Hypothesis Generation for LLM-Based Text Analysis with Researcher-Specified Covariates

When large language models (LLMs) are used in high-stakes scenarios, such as legal, medical and financial advice, even a single conversation history is enough to drive differences in outcomes between users. Prior work has demonstrated that this results in outcome disparities between sociodemographic groups, with some groups receiving more advantageous outcomes than others. In this work, we demonstrate that LLMs actually struggle to infer user sociodemographics from a single conversation history and that although there are disparities between sociodemographic groups, they are minimal in magnitude. To investigate what the main driver of these disparities is, we compare user sociodemographics to a range of (psycho)linguistic features of conversations, including conversation topic, emotions, and readability. We find that conversation topics are most predictive of LLM-generated advice within a conversational context, which, to some extent, function as proxies for sociodemographic groups and often affect advice in unpredictable ways. This is cause for concern and highlights the need for future research to better understand and, if needed, mitigate the effect of conversational context on LLM outputs in high-stakes scenarios.

Conditional independence tests (CITs) test for conditional dependence between two random objects $X$ and $Y$ given a third random object $Z$. Existing CITs have limited applicability to high-dimensional data, especially multimodal data like text. However, we show that such tests are of interest for large language model (LLM) outputs, where we test whether an output $X$ generated from a source text $Z$ carries information about an attribute $Y$ beyond $Z$ itself. For this purpose, we propose embedded CITs (eCITs), which embed $X$ and $Z$ and apply an existing CIT to the resulting representations and to $Y$. We show that, provided the embedding of $Z$ is sufficient, i.e. retains the information $Z$ carries about either $Y$ or the representation of $X$, the null hypothesis transfers from $X$ and $Z$ to their representations, so that a CIT valid for the embedded hypothesis is valid for the original one. We further give conditions for equivalence of the two hypotheses, and show that sufficiency weakens to mean sufficiency when the embedded test targets conditional mean independence. We propose a semi-synthetic simulation design to assess type I error (T1E) control and power of the eCITs for given embedding maps on a specific dataset and task, and use it to evaluate them on our application. Applying the eCITs to German Parliament speeches, we find for all combinations of embedding maps considered that the summaries of two LLMs contain information about the speaker's faction and gender beyond the speech they were generated from.

We present a methodological framework to discover linguistic and discursive patterns associated to different social groups through contrastive synthetic text generation and statistical analysis. In contrast with previous approaches, we aim to characterize subtle expressions of bias, instead of diagnosing bias through a pre-determined list of words or expressions. We are also working with contextualized data instead of isolated words or sentences. Our methodology applies to textual productions in any genre, encompassing narrative, task-oriented or dialogic. Contextualized data are generated using controlled combinations of situational scenarios and group markers, creating minimal pairs of texts that differ only in the referenced group while maintaining comparable narrative conditions. To facilitate robust analysis, linguistic forms are generalized and associations between linguistic abstractions and groups are quantified using a variant of pointwise mutual information to detect expressions that appear disproportionately across groups. A fragment-ranking strategy then prioritizes text segments with a high concentration of biased linguistic signals, which allows for experts to assess the harmful potential of linguistic expressions in context, bridging quantitative analysis and qualitative interpretation.