A VideoMAE-v2 Approach to Zero-Shot Traffic Accident Anticipation

We present the 1st-place solution to the ACCIDENT challenge at the CVPR 2026 AUTOPILOT Workshop, which asks for zero-shot prediction of accident timing, impact centroid, and collision type from CCTV footage. On a frozen Qwen3-VL-32B-Instruct checkpoint we build a three-stage pipeline (full-video joint prediction, time refinement, and single-frame grounding of the impact centroid), run the same pipeline a second time on a 235B Mixture-of-Experts sibling, blend the two outputs 9:1, and finally snap each predicted point onto the nearest vehicle detection. The final system reaches Public LB 0.55469 / Private LB 0.57080, roughly +0.21 over the strongest host baseline (Molmo-7B, 0.358) and wins the challenge. We ablate each component, report the negative results that shaped the final design, and release the code at https://github.com/fuumin621/cvpr2026-accident-1st-place-solution.

Traffic surveillance cameras capture accidents continuously, yet converting raw CCTV footage into structured event records that pinpoint when, where, and what type of collision occurred remains unsolved at scale. The ACCIDENT @ CVPR benchmark evaluates exactly this joint prediction under a strict constraint: no labeled real-world training data is available. We introduce a training-free, two-pass coarse-to-fine pipeline that pairs a frozen Qwen3-VL-32B-Instruct vision-language model with YOLO11x object detection and BoT-SORT tracking. A first pass sparsely samples the full clip to anchor the collision moment in time; a second pass re-examines a tight window around that estimate using frames annotated with stable vehicle identities and normalized bounding-box coordinates, which gives the model both a visual overlay and an explicit numeric description of the same scene. On the official 2,027-clip real-CCTV test set, our system achieves a three-way harmonic mean score of 0.504, surpassing all organizer-published baselines including the best multi-model ensemble (0.412) by a 22% relative margin.

Anticipating traffic accidents from dashcam videos is a critical challenge in intelligent transportation systems. Existing methods typically map visual context directly to a collision probability without explicitly modeling the future evolution of the driving scene. In this paper we propose FLaRA (Predicting Future Latent Representations for Accident Anticipation), a novel predictive architecture that shifts this paradigm by forecasting future latent representations for accident anticipation. Building upon the Video Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (V-JEPA2), our model conditions a predictor network on observed context frames to predict the forthcoming latent features of the scene. A classifier then operates on these predicted future representations rather than only on past observations. To ensure these forecasts remain grounded in realistic future dynamics, we introduce a joint training objective that simultaneously optimizes an auxiliary feature-level reconstruction loss and a cross-entropy classification loss. Extensive evaluations on the Nexar dataset, alongside cross-domain validations on the DAD, DADA-2000, and DoTA benchmarks, demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance while maintaining realistic early warning capabilities.