Predictive Assistance and the Temporal Dynamics of Exploratory Compression

This paper develops a theory of exploratory adaptation under AI-assisted optimization. The central argument is that the long-run adaptive effects of AI systems depend critically on how predictive assistance interacts with exploratory responsiveness itself. We formalize this mechanism using a dynamical framework in which cognitive, institutional, and technological systems evolve over rugged epistemic landscapes characterized by multiple locally reinforced configurations. A central state variable in the model is adaptive responsiveness, which measures the capacity of a system to traverse unfamiliar conceptual and institutional trajectories under changing conditions. Under convergent predictive regimes, AI systems substitute for exploratory engagement, reducing adaptive responsiveness and generating metastable trapping, hysteresis, premature convergence, and exploration-collapse dynamics in which systems become locally efficient but globally rigid. The framework also identifies contrasting exploration-enhancing regimes in which AI systems amplify exploratory search, conceptual traversal, and adaptive mobility. The effective substitution parameter is therefore responsiveness-dependent: systems possessing weak exploratory routines are more vulnerable to exploratory substitution, whereas systems already possessing high adaptive responsiveness may use AI assistance to expand exploratory mobility across rugged landscapes. The long-run adaptive effects of AI consequently depend not only on AI capability itself, but also on institutional structure, developmental context, and the architecture of human-machine interaction.

Active sensing links behavior and learning through an action-perception loop: actions determine the observations used to update internal predictive models of perception, which subsequently guide the next actions. Predictive-coding frameworks provide a natural way to model this process, since internal representations are continuously updated to predict future observations. Here, we ask how exploratory and exploitative behavioral strategies shape these internal predictive representations. We build an online learning agent in a tree-like maze with a controllable parameter regulating the balance between exploratory and exploitative regimes. The agent updates a predictive-coding-based perception model from experience generated by its own behavior. The model predicts both future maze states and reward probability, allowing the agent to select actions either by expected information gain during exploration or by predicted reward during exploitation. We show that the resulting internal predictive representations depend strongly on the agent's behavioral regime. Exploratory agents develop representations that are more spatially organized and better preserve the structure of maze transitions in latent space. In contrast, exploitative agents learn less organized representations. We then train this predictive model on natural trajectories of water-deprived mice navigating the same maze and compare the resulting representations with those learned from agent trajectories. More exploratory mice show representational geometries that closely match those of exploratory agents, whereas mice with more restricted visitation patterns resemble reward-driven, exploitative agents. Together, these findings suggest that exploration enables predictive models to form generalized internal representations by organizing latent space around both spatial location and transition context in artificial agents and animals.

Adaptive behavior under partial observability depends on internal organization that carries information beyond the current observation. Drawing on Barrett and Miller's account of categorization as predictive, compressive, functionally organized, and allostatically constrained, we test whether recurrent and spiking agents develop internal states with corresponding computational properties. Agents operate in an energy-constrained foraging task requiring resource acquisition, threat avoidance, contact-dependent consumption, and regulation of an internal energy variable. In a frozen benchmark, learned agents outperform random and heuristic baselines; the trace-augmented recurrent policy is strongest overall, while spiking variants show stress-specific differences. Early internal dynamics predict later full-safe-efficient success above permutation baseline, reaching a maximum ROC-AUC of 0.802. Reduced PCA subspaces retain behaviorally relevant information. Feature-family controls show that predictive signal is distributed across trace, policy-head, internal-dynamics, observation, and allostatic variables, and low-energy state remains strongly decodable after explicit energy-related features are removed. Evaluation-time perturbations to temporal state, sensory information, operating conditions, and allostatic mechanisms alter behavior and/or internal prediction. Seed-balanced event probes show weaker but measurable information about future contact, successful consumption, and threat events, alongside strong low-energy decoding. We interpret this pattern as a computational analogue of predictive allostatic organization: distributed control regimes that are predictive, energy-sensitive, action-relevant, and partly causally involved, without claiming biological validation or discrete symbolic categories.