Regional Climate Model Emulation with Diffusion Approaches: What is the Added Value of Generative Machine Learning?
Authors: Mikel N. Legasa, Antoine Doury, Achille Gellens, Redouane Lguensat, Clara Naldesi, Soulivanh Thao, Mathieu Vrac
Organizations: Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE), CEA/CNRS/UVSQ, Universit´e Paris Saclay, UMR8212, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France · CNRM, Universit´e de Toulouse, M´et´eo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France · Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR636, Paris, France · Autorit´e de sˆuret´e nucl´eaire et de radioprotection, PSE-ENV/SCAN/BEHRIG, F-92260, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France
Emulators provide a cost-effective alternative to regional climate models (RCMs) by capturing their dynamical downscaling function. They link large-scale predictors simulated by global climate models (GCMs) to RCM-simulated high-resolution fields of the target variable, here precipitation. Machine learning methods, typically deep learning, are cheaper than running RCMs in computation time and energy. Among them, generative models are appealing because they can simulate ensembles of local high-resolution fields consistent with the predictors. This ensemble, which we call the uncertainty envelope, remains to be properly assessed for added value. Here, we make three contributions. First, we introduce ParamDiffusion, a new two-stage diffusion-based framework, and compare it with a state-of-the-art diffusion approach. Second, we expand standard validation through a comprehensive framework aligned with climate-science needs, examining specific precipitation events, including extremes. Third, within this framework, we assess the added value of diffusion approaches relative to deterministic methods. We intercompare four deep-learning models: a deterministic model designed to capture the precipitation tail; a parametric probabilistic model based on it; a recently proposed diffusion approach; and ParamDiffusion, which couples the parametric model with a diffusion model. Our results show that diffusion-based approaches reproduce climatological precipitation statistics with high skill, including distributional tails and spatially compounded extremes, while generating spatially detailed fields. However, none of the assessed models consistently accounts for the most extreme RCM-simulated events within its uncertainty envelope. Diffusion models are therefore promising for probabilistic RCM emulation, but progress is still required before they can reliably represent high-impact precipitation extremes.
ML climate model emulators are useful for scenario planning and adaptation, allowing for cost-efficient experimentation. Recently, the diffusion model Climate in a Bottle (cBottle) has been proposed for generation of atmospheric states compatible with boundary conditions of solar position and sea surface temperatures. Crucially, cBottle can be guided to generate extreme events such as Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over locations of interest. Diffusion models such as cBottle work by approximating the probability density of the training data. Here, we show use cases of the probability density estimates of atmospheric states obtained from this climate emulator. Most importantly, these estimates allow us to calculate likelihoods of extreme events under guidance. When guiding the model towards states including TCs, comparing the probability density under the guided and unguided model enables us to quantify how much more likely the guidance has made the TC. We show how these odds ratios allow us to importance-sample from the TC distribution, reducing the standard error of the probability estimate compared to simple Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, we discuss results and limitations of the application of model probability densities to extreme event attribution-like experiments. We present these early but encouraging results hoping they will spur more research into probabilistic information that can be gained from diffusion models of the atmosphere.
Peter Manshausen, Noah Brenowitz, Julius Berner +2
The proliferation of data-driven models in weather and climate sciences has marked a significant paradigm shift, with advanced models demonstrating exceptional skill in medium-range forecasting. However, these models are often limited by long-term instabilities, climatological drift, and substantial computational costs during training and inference, restricting their broader application for climate studies. Addressing these limitations, Guan et al. (2024) introduced LUCIE, a lightweight, physically consistent climate emulator utilizing a Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture. This model is able to reproduce accurate long-term statistics including climatological mean and seasonal variability. However, LUCIE's native resolution (~300 km) is inadequate for detailed regional impact assessments. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a deep learning-based downscaling framework, leveraging probabilistic diffusion-based generative models with conditional and posterior sampling frameworks. These models downscale coarse LUCIE outputs to 25 km resolution. They are trained on approximately 14,000 ERA5 timesteps spanning 2000-2009 and evaluated on LUCIE predictions from 2010 to 2020. Model performance is assessed through diverse metrics, including latitude-averaged RMSE, power spectrum, probability density functions and First Empirical Orthogonal Function of the zonal wind. We observe that the proposed approach is able to preserve the coarse-grained dynamics from LUCIE while generating fine-scaled climatological statistics at ~28km resolution.
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecasting has substantial financial and societal impact, yet remains challenging because of weak predictive signals, high associated uncertainty, and the computational cost of operational systems, which constrains simulation fidelity. We introduce SimCast-S2S, a generative latent-diffusion framework for probabilistic S2S precipitation forecasting that addresses three major bottlenecks in data-driven prediction. First, because S2S prediction requires uncertainty quantification rather than only deterministic point forecasts, SimCast-S2S is the first data-driven system that uses a diffusion-based generative pipeline for S2S prediction, enabling effective sampling from the underlying conditional distribution. Second, since generating large probabilistic ensembles is computationally costly in physical space, SimCast-S2S instead operates in a compact latent space learned by variational autoencoders (VAEs), enabling efficient large-ensemble generation. Third, diffusion models typically require large training datasets; SimCast-S2S overcomes this via transfer learning with low-rank adaptation (LoRA), pretraining on large ensembles of climate simulations before fine-tuning on limited reanalysis data. On reanalysis data, SimCast-S2S outperforms deep learning baselines, including convolutional neural networks and U-Net architectures. Notably, despite using only a subset of atmospheric input variables and no post-processing, bias correction, or calibration, SimCast-S2S remains competitive with, and in many aspects outperforms, state-of-the-art operational systems such as the ECMWF-S2S baseline. These results indicate that latent generative modeling combined with simulation-to-reanalysis transfer learning offers an efficient and scalable path toward data-driven probabilistic S2S precipitation forecasting.