Posterior Twins: Distributional Behavioral Simulation for Enterprise Decisions

A digital twin (DT) is a virtual model of a real-world system that can assist decision-making by simulating scenarios induced by different policies. However, typical machine learning-based DTs do not optimise for this use case. We prove that, when model capacity is limited, training DTs to minimise one-step transition errors can produce suboptimal models for ranking sets of policies according to a reward function. We further show that this holds empirically, even with expressive model classes. To address this, we introduce $\text{DT}^2$, a decision-targeted DT training paradigm. Firstly, $\text{DT}^2$ uses fitted Q-evaluation to estimate values of candidate policies from offline data. A DT is then trained to generate rollouts that preserve pairwise policy rankings derived from these proxy ground-truth values with an architecture-agnostic loss function. We empirically demonstrate the efficacy of our method across a range of settings and architectures. $\text{DT}^2$ consistently improves policy ranking and reduces decision regret during policy selection relative to conventional DT training, both for policies used during training and for unseen policies, while maintaining a good level of raw simulation fidelity.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human behavior in business, economics, and the social sciences, offering a low-cost complement to laboratory experiments, field studies, and surveys. This paper evaluates how well LLMs replicate human behavior in operations management. Using nine published behavioral-operations experiments, we assess LLM performance along two dimensions: whether LLM-generated data reproduce the original hypothesis-test outcomes, and whether their full response distributions align with human data, measured by Wasserstein distance. We find that LLMs often replicate hypothesis-level effects, suggesting that they can capture salient decision biases and behavioral regularities. However, their response distributions frequently diverge from human data, even for strong proprietary models, with dispersion mismatch playing an important role. We also examine two lightweight mitigation strategies: chain-of-thought prompting and hyperparameter tuning. Both can reduce distributional misalignment, and appropriate tuning can sometimes allow smaller or open-source models to match or outperform larger proprietary systems.

Customer behavior modeling underpins recommendation, marketing, and decision support, yet existing approaches either optimize predictive accuracy without explaining decisions or simulate users without grounding them in real behavioral data. We present the Large Behavioral Model (LBM) that learns customer decision making directly from large-scale retail transactions through a unified Person-Environment formulation. Customer state is represented by a behavioral profile derived from historical purchases, while product context is incorporated through retrieval-augmented generation. The model is trained using continued pre-training on verbalized behavioral data, supervised fine-tuning for decision generation, and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards for evidence-based calibration. We evaluate the proposed framework on purchase prediction, hard-negative discrimination, basket completion, promotion response, and cross-domain voucher redemption. The model consistently outperforms frontier general-purpose language models on in-domain retail tasks while demonstrating strong zero-shot and fine-tuned transfer across retailers and decision domains. Ablation studies show that continued pre-training is the primary driver of behavioral generalization, retrieval is most effective when applied during both training and inference, and reinforcement learning improves reliance on explicit behavioral evidence over generic language-model priors. These results demonstrate that behavioral knowledge encoded in transaction histories can be effectively learned by language models, providing a scalable foundation for customer digital twins and behavior simulation.