Diachronic Sample Integration: Robust Tail-Risk Estimation with Generative Models

Recent works have proposed incorporating heavy-tailed (HT) noise into diffusion- and flow-based generative models, with the goals of better recovering the tails of target distributions and improving generative diversity. This motivation is intuitive: if the data are heavy-tailed, HT noise may appear better matched than light-tailed (LT) Gaussian noise. However, replacing Gaussian noise by HT noise also changes the underlying estimation problem. In this paper, we revisit this paradigm through a combined theoretical and empirical study, establishing sampling-error bounds for two representative diffusion models driven by HT and LT noise. We show that HT noise makes the statistical estimation problem harder, leading to less favorable sampling-error bounds. We support these findings with experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, empirically recovering the predicted error trade-off. Our results call into question a growing design trend in generative modeling and challenge the use of HT noise to improve rare-region exploration.

In many settings involving stochastic differential equations, including in diffusion based generative AI, our aim is to accurately generate samples from a terminal distribution. Typically, this is done by generating i.i.d. samples of diffusion paths. Given a fixed simulation budget, a reasonable way to gain efficiency may be to instead generate a tree of paths through appropriately split partial paths. This suggests improved performance, but one worries about the injected dependence. In this paper, we study this issue comprehensively. With Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance as a measure of accuracy, we identify the limiting errors of the associated empirical distributions as the simulation budget increases to infinity. We characterize a splitting strategy motivated by a corresponding asymptotic optimization problem. The theoretical results bring out the elegant underlying structure in the problem. Practical implementation involves two phases, an initial estimation phase and a final inference phase. Overall, we observe a 10-25% improvement in mean error over i.i.d. samples in many settings. In an exploratory CIFAR-10 study, our method reduces the maximum mean discrepancy by 8-13%.

iffusion-based generative models increasingly rely on inference-time guidance, adding a drift term or reweighting mixture of experts, to improve sample quality on task-specific objectives. However, most existing techniques require repeated score or gradient evaluations, introducing bias, high computational overhead, or both. We introduce \texttt{URGE}, Unbiased Resampling via Girsanov Estimation, a derivative-free inference-time scaling algorithm that performs path-wise importance reweighting via a Girsanov change of measure. Instead of computing gradient-based particle weights in previous work, \texttt{URGE} attaches a simple multiplicative weight to each simulated trajectory and periodically resamples. No score, no Hessian, and no PDE evaluation is required. We establish an equivalence between path-wise and particle-wise SMC: the Girsanov path weight admits a backward conditional expectation that recovers the previous particle-level weights, guaranteeing that both schemes produce the same unbiased terminal law. Empirically, \texttt{URGE} outperforms existing inference-time guidance baselines on synthetic tests and diffusion-model benchmarks, achieving better generation quality, while being significantly simpler to implement and fully gradient-free.