Authors: Jan Linnenbrink, Jakub Nowosad, Marvin Ludwig, Anna Frederike Jablotschkin, Fabian Schumacher, Teja Kattenborn, Hanna Meyer
Abstract
Spatio-temporal machine-learning modelling is an important tool in environmental research. However, machine-learning models are highly sensitive to both the characteristics of the training data, such as its distribution, and methodological choices, including the cross-validation strategy. Each decision has impact and implications on the model itself as well as the estimation of the model quality and applicability for certain purposes. Taking into account the large role of machine-learning based maps of the environment in science and their transfer into practice, transparent reporting of spatio-temporal models, ideally using standardized model protocols, is essential to enable trust, transparency and comparability. However, such protocols are currently lacking for spatio-temporal modelling. We propose STeMP (Spatio-Temporal Modelling Protocol) to fill this gap by serving two purposes: standardized reporting to understand the model functioning as well as providing guidance during the modelling process by pointing at critical decisions and parameters. The protocol is structured in three sections: Overview, Model and Prediction. The Overview section contains metadata, while the Model and Prediction sections go into detail, describing predictors, evaluation and software, and further relevant elements of the modelling workflow. The protocol definition is hosted on GitHub and accompanied by an R-package (https://github.com/LOEK-RS/STeMP). The R-package contains a web application that can be used to fill the protocol either manually or in a semi-automated way from provided modelling objects. Warnings are returned from the protocol when common pitfalls are encountered, which may help authors as a guide through the modelling process but also support reviewers in the assessment of modelling studies. Via GitHub, incorporation of contributions and feedback from the community is encouraged.
Spatiotemporal point processes (STPPs) model event data in continuous time and space, with applications in mobility, epidemiology, and public safety. Recent neural STPPs span expressive intensity models, conditional density models, continuous-time latent dynamics, normalizing-flow spatial decoders, and score-based generative mechanisms. Yet comparison remains fragile because implementations differ in preprocessing, coordinate normalization, splits, likelihood conventions, and evaluation protocols. We present SEAHORSE, a unified framework for reproducible STPP experimentation. SEAHORSE formalizes neural STPPs through a common encode-evolve-decode interface and trains, tunes, and evaluates every model family under a single executable benchmark protocol with raw-coordinate likelihood reporting. This enables fair comparisons but, more importantly, controlled diagnostic studies. We pair SEAHORSE with HawkesNest, a synthetic stress-test suite, and show that increasing event-pattern complexity exposes each family's inductive bias, degrading some models sharply and leaving others stable. Code: https://github.com/YahyaAalaila/seahorse.
Evaluation of spatiotemporal point process (STPP) models relies heavily on opaque real-world datasets, where latent generative structure is unknown and model failures are difficult to attribute. We introduce HawkesNest, a generator-aligned benchmark for controlled spatiotemporal pattern complexity built on a multivariate Hawkes backbone. HawkesNest defines four complexity axes: space--time entanglement, background heterogeneity, cross-type interaction, and domain topology. Each axis is associated with a deterministic index computed from the latent data-generating mechanism. By varying these axes while holding global rate, stability, and simulation budget fixed, HawkesNest enables diagnostic stress tests of STPP models under known structural difficulty. We verify that the indices are monotone and nearly orthogonal under controlled sweeps. We illustrate its use by showing that Hawkes-family baselines degrade under joint heterogeneity--entanglement complexity, even though they are structurally aligned with the Hawkes data-generating backbone. We further show that HawkesNest exposes neural-model sensitivity: AutoSTPP remains vulnerable under isolated increases in space--time entanglement. Code. Available at https://github.com/YahyaAalaila/HawkesNest
Federated learning has emerged as a promising paradigm for spatio-temporal forecasting (STF), enabling collaborative model training without sharing raw observations. Existing federated STF methods primarily regard cross-client heterogeneity as an optimization challenge and mitigate it through personalized approaches. However, such heterogeneity fundamentally stems from diverse \emph{environmental conditions}, and these methods capture environment-specific forecasting patterns, hardly generalizing under environmental shifts. Our key insight is that the environmental diversity across federated clients should be exploited, as they provide \emph{complementary observations of the same underlying spatio-temporal system}. Based on this insight, we propose \method, a novel federated de-confounding framework that \textbf{treats clients as distinct causal environments}. \method leverages the client heterogeneity as distributed environmental evidence and learns a global prototype codebook to capture shared environmental regimes. We further derive a theoretical federated de-confounding bound that is linearly controlled by the averaged confounding strength. Extensive experiments demonstrate that \method consistently outperforms federated baselines, while providing transferable, interpretable, and communication-efficient environmental representations.