Multi-Agent System-driven Digital Twins for predictive maintenance: architectures, technologies and open research challenges

Industrial automation is being transformed by digitalization and the increasing use of cyber-physical systems. Modern production environments require greater adaptability, faster reconfiguration, and more intuitive human-machine interaction. However, traditional rule-based systems rely on fixed logic and cannot autonomously adapt to changing conditions. Consequently, current automation systems lack a systematic approach for integrating adaptive and generalizable reasoning capabilities for interpreting, planning, and executing user tasks across dynamic environments and heterogeneous components. This dissertation proposes a three-layer framework that integrates large language models (LLMs), digital twins, and automation systems into an autonomous system. Autonomy is defined as a design property assigned to system components and enabled through LLM-based reasoning to achieve adaptive, goal-oriented behavior. The Task-Process-Service-Resource (TPSR) model is introduced to transform user tasks into executable processes. Four LLM roles are identified: process orchestration, service matching, digital resource generation, and agent-as-a-service. Five peer-reviewed studies develop and refine these concepts using the design science research methodology. Case studies and prototypes demonstrate adaptive task planning, event-driven control, simulation-based parameterization, and digital model generation. Results show high task executability, command correctness, and content-generation accuracy while reducing manual effort. The framework enables the integration of LLM-based reasoning into industrial automation systems and improves adaptability and usability. Limitations include dependence on accurate digital representations, the computational demands of LLMs, and the need for human intervention in safety-critical situations.

Despite advances in artificial intelligence (AI) across multiple sectors, today's AI tools, including deep learning and generative AI, still fail when embedded into physical systems, such as robots and vehicles operating under real-world physical laws. This stems from their inability to maintain reliable world models for long-horizon planning under uncertainty and generalize to unseen scenarios. In this context, wireless networks, through pervasive sensing and communication, can orchestrate physical intelligence. However, current architectures optimize throughput, latency, and reliability and cannot support real-time physical AI coordination, requiring agents to maintain shared spatiotemporal context. To address these challenges, a network of holonic digital twins (HDT-Nets) framework is proposed to deliver real-time physical AI inference through holonic agents that actively reason about their environment rather than passively mirror physical assets. Each HDT is realized as a hierarchical structure spanning the physical agent and network edge, reasoning autonomously at the local level while cooperating with neighboring HDTs to form collectively intelligent units. In HDT-Net, causal Markov blankets spanning sensing, communication, and control determine which agents must coordinate and enable counterfactual reasoning over multi-domain interventions. Active inference within these boundaries unifies perception, action, and learning by minimizing expected free energy while deciding which beliefs to transmit based on their cognitive value to the receiver. Category theory ensures that transmitted beliefs preserve semantic structure across heterogeneous agents with incompatible representations. Finally, integrated information theory quantifies when collective intelligence exceeds independent operation and how network intelligence evolves through coordinated learning and information exchange.

Here, we explore the problem of error propagation mitigation in modular digital twins as a sequential decision process. Building on a companion study that used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to infer latent error regimes from surrogate-physics residuals, we develop a Markov Decision Process (MDP) in which the inferred regimes serve as states, corrective interventions serve as actions, and a scalar reward that takes into consideration the cost-benefit tradeoff between system fidelity and maintenance expense. The baseline transition matrix is extracted from the HMM-learned parameters. We then extend the formulation to a Partially Observable MDP (POMDP) that accounts for the imperfect nature of regime classification by maintaining a belief distribution updated via Bayesian filtering, with the HMM confusion matrix serving as the observation model. Both formulations are solved via dynamic programming and validated through Gillespie stochastic simulation. We then benchmark two model-free reinforcement learning algorithms, Q-learning and REINFORCE, to assess whether effective policies can be learned without explicit model knowledge. A systematic comparison of different intervention policies demonstrates that the MDP policy achieves the highest cumulative reward and fraction of time in nominal operation, while the POMDP recovers approximately 95% of MDP performance under realistic observation noise. Sensitivity analyses across observation quality, repair probability, and discount factor confirm the robustness of these conclusions, and the major gaps in the policy hierarchy are statistically significant at $p < 0.001$. The gap between MDP and POMDP performance quantifies the value of information providing a principled criterion for investing in improved classification accuracy.