Verbalized Machine Learning (VML) parameterizes a model as a natural-language prompt that an LLM evaluates as f(x; theta). The framework is interpretable, but it commits to a single hypothesis with no measure of uncertainty, and that hypothesis varies substantially across optimization runs on the same data. We propose the Verbalized Particle Posterior (VPP), which treats verbalized learning as a Bayesian inference problem: maintain a population of natural-language hypotheses as particles, update them with Metropolis-Hastings (VPP-MH) or Sequential Monte Carlo (VPP-SMC), and predict by Bayesian model averaging. Both algorithms treat the LLM as a black box, requiring no access to logits or gradients. A distinctive consequence follows. In classical Bayesian learning, model selection sits outside the posterior; in VPP both model structure and parameters share a single language space, and the posterior ranges over both. We evaluate VPP on regression, classification, and rule-discovery benchmarks. It improves over a single VML run on every benchmark and matches or exceeds an oracle-best ensemble of independent VML runs on most, while eliminating the catastrophic single-run failures that VML occasionally produces. Because each particle is a human-readable hypothesis, the posterior is itself something a reader can inspect, seeing in plain text which explanations the data supported and which it ruled out.
Large language models (LLMs) increasingly help people solve problems, from debugging code to repairing machinery. This process requires generating plausible hypotheses from partial descriptions, then updating them as more information arrives. Yet how LLMs perform this form of inference, and how close it is to optimal, remains unclear. We study this question in the number game, a controlled setting in which a learner infers the hypothesis supported by a few positive integers, such as {16,8,2,64}: a rule like powers of 2 or an interval like numbers near 20. We measure the posterior over hypotheses using three complementary probes: posterior prediction, hypothesis evaluation, and hypothesis generation. We then compare LLM behavior with an optimal Bayesian model and human behavior, and test whether the same posterior is expressed across probes. LLMs are often well described by a two-parameter Bayesian fit, but with systematic offsets: by default they show a strong-sampling assumption that creates an implicit Occam's razor, favoring narrower hypotheses, while thinking mode shifts them toward greater prior reliance. We also find a robust evaluation--generation gap: LLMs select more correct hypotheses during hypothesis evaluation but generate simpler, more rule-like hypotheses. Finally, this Bayesian-with-bias pattern does not extrapolate. Models can behave as if they hold rule-like hypotheses over observed examples, yet generalize poorly to parts of the hypothesis domain not covered by those examples. Our results highlight a limitation of LLMs as general problem solvers, especially for scientific inference, where hypotheses must go beyond the data.
Inference-time scaling for LLM reasoning has focused on three axes: chain depth, sample breadth, and learned step-scorers (PRMs). We introduce a fourth axis, granularity of external verbal supervision, via Verbal Process Supervision (VPS), a training-free framework that uses structured natural-language critique from a stronger supervisor to guide an iterative generate-critique-refine loop up to a round budget R. Across GPQA Diamond, AIME 2025, and LiveCodeBench V6 (covering both closed and open models), VPS yields three key results. First, on GPQA Diamond, GPT-5.4 (High) | GPT-5.4 (Low) reaches 94.9% at R=4, surpassing the 94.1% state of the art without gradient updates. Second, on AIME 2025, VPS enables strong weak-actor rescue, boosting scores from 11.7-26.7% to 63.3-90.0% (up to +63.3 points). Third, at matched compute, VPS outperforms Reflexion by +8.5 to +12.1 points and Self-Consistency@5 by +5.0 pp (GPQA) and +8.3 pp (LiveCodeBench), isolating critique granularity as the key driver. Performance scales with the supervisor-actor capability gap (Pearson r=0.90) and degrades when errors are not linguistically expressible (e.g., code synthesis), motivating hybrid verbal-executable methods. These results establish critique granularity as a new axis of inference-time scaling.
Vanilla variational inference finds an optimal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution, but even the exact Bayesian posterior is often not meaningful under model misspecification. We propose predictive variational inference (PVI): a general inference framework that seeks and samples from an optimal posterior density such that the resulting posterior predictive distribution is as close to the true data generating process as possible, while this closeness is measured by multiple scoring rules. By optimizing the objective, the predictive variational inference is generally not the same as, or even attempting to approximate, the Bayesian posterior, even asymptotically. Rather, we interpret it as implicit hierarchical expansion. Further, the learned posterior uncertainty detects heterogeneity of parameters among the population, enabling automatic model diagnosis. This framework applies to both likelihood-exact and likelihood-free models. We demonstrate its application in real data examples.