MetaKoopman: Bayesian Meta-Learning of Koopman Operators for Modeling Structured Dynamics under Distribution Shifts
Authors: Mahmoud Selim, Sriharsha Bhat, Karl H. Johansson
Organizations: TRATON · KTH Royal Institute of Technology
Abstract
Modeling and forecasting nonlinear dynamics under distribution shifts is essential for robust decision-making in real-world systems. In this work, we propose MetaKoopman, a Bayesian meta-learning framework for modeling nonlinear dynamics through linear latent representations. MetaKoopman learns a Matrix Normal-Inverse Wishart (MNIW) prior over the Koopman operator, enabling closed-form Bayesian updates conditioned on recent trajectory segments. Moreover, it provides a closed-form posterior predictive distribution over future state trajectories, capturing both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the learned dynamics. We evaluate MetaKoopman on a full-scale autonomous truck and trailer system across a wide range of adverse winter scenarios, including snow, ice, and mixed-friction conditions, as well as in simulated control tasks with diverse distribution shifts. MetaKoopman consistently outperforms prior approaches in multi-step prediction accuracy, uncertainty calibration, and robustness to distributional shifts. Field experiments further demonstrate its effectiveness in dynamically feasible motion planning, particularly during evasive maneuvers and operation at the limits of traction. Project website: https://mahmoud-selim.github.io/MetaKoopman/
Offline models for autonomous robots often fail under time-varying dynamics outside their training distribution. Koopman operator theory offers a linear representation of nonlinear dynamics via lifting, but its transition to real-time recursive estimation may suffer numerical vulnerabilities: covariance windup under low excitation when using exponential forgetting, and vanishing gain without forgetting. This paper introduces a Covariance-Regulated Recursive Koopman Learning (CR-RKL) framework with two complementary strategies--error dead-zone gating and constant-trace normalization--each independently capable of preventing covariance explosion and parameter freezing, with the latter additionally preserving the geometric structure of uncertainty. Validated on a non-holonomic differential-drive robot with wheel slip and Stribeck friction and on a 26-gram butterfly-inspired flapping-wing micro aerial vehicle, CR-RKL achieves numerically stable and accurate online modeling, and when embedded in model predictive control, it maintains reliable tracking performance under uncertain, time-varying dynamics.
Koopman operator theory provides a powerful framework for representing nonlinear dynamics through a linear operator acting on lifted observables, enabling the use of linear control techniques for nonlinear systems. However, Koopman models are typically learned from data and often degrade in performance under model uncertainty and distributional shifts between training and deployment. Although several works have explored online adaptation to address this issue, many rely on neural network-based updates that introduce significant computational overhead and lack formal safety guarantees, limiting their suitability for real-time and safety-critical robotic applications. In this work, we propose a unified framework for continual adaptive Koopman learning that enables safe and efficient online refinement of learned models during task execution. An autoencoder-based Koopman model is first learned offline and subsequently refined online through a contractive adaptation law, which provides theoretical convergence guarantees under distributional shifts and model uncertainty. To improve data efficiency and accelerate model refinement, the adaptation mechanism is integrated with an active learning strategy that drives the system to collect informative data while accomplishing task objectives. The resulting control problem is formulated as a nonconvex optimization problem incorporating both active learning objectives and safety constraints. We further derive theoretical bounds on model approximation error and show how these bounds can be incorporated within a robust Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework to provide formal safety guarantees. The proposed approach unifies learning, excitation, and safety within a single control framework without sacrificing real-time feasibility. Extensive simulation and experimental studies demonstrate superior performance compared to state-of-the-art baselines.
As autonomous vehicles move from a simplified research setting to practical use, there exists a large gap between the dynamic behavior of a human driving and an autonomous system. Risk-aware behavior needs to naturally develop in order to scale to the demands of the real world. A major issue for risk-aware planning and control has been predicting how dynamical uncertainty evolves through time and optimizing plans that account for this without being overly conservative. Here, we present a learning framework to predict distributional dynamics that can be optimized in real time for Model Predictive Control (MPC). We explore the importance of structure when learning distributional dynamics for use in MPC. A rigorous ablation study is conducted on a large dataset of real world off-road driving that shows the impact of deviations from our proposed structure. Furthermore, we deploy our learned model and planning stack on a full sized vehicle in challenging off-road conditions. Our planning architecture is able to naturally regulate the speed of the vehicle based on the environment and consistently demonstrates intelligent behavior over miles of diverse terrain.