An Information Theoretic Treatment of Yager's Probability Distribution Negation

Although probabilistic statements are ubiquitous, foundational disagreements persist about their understanding, as exemplified by debates between Bayesians and frequentists; moreover, it is unclear when and why acting on them actually leads to desirable outcomes. Here, we argue that every probability is the output of a \emph{prediction method}, that is, it depends on both a particular way of constructing abstractions and a way of transforming them into predictions. Through this, we provide a unifying perspective on supposedly different kinds of probabilities and show that even supposedly objective ones are model-dependent. We demonstrate that when a finite calibration criterion is met, one can anticipate the distribution of utilities for a given policy and inform successful decision-making on finite sets of events. Based on the notion of prediction methods, inductive arguments, and the probability calculus, we explain the feasibility of the calibration criterion in many settings. Overall, we develop a coherent perspective on probabilities and their use, connecting key intuitions behind other interpretations along the way.

Analogies are quaternary relations of the form "A is to B as C is to D". Among the various formalizations of analogical reasoning, proportional analogies provide an important axiomatic framework by characterizing valid analogies through a set of postulates. While proportional analogies have been extensively studied over Boolean, symbolic, and real-valued domains, their extension to probability distributions remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we introduce a notion of proportional analogy for probability distributions based on Bayesian updating. Our approach builds upon the idea that two distributions are related whenever one can be transformed into the other through Bayesian updating induced by a suitable set of observations. We investigate this framework for several standard members of the exponential family and discuss how it naturally extends to arbitrary probability distributions through Gaussian mixture approximations.

We propose a mathematical theory of pragmatic information that connects communication, control, and decision-making. Its central notion is the isoteleia mapping, which formalizes equifinality: distinct semantic paths that lead to the same optimal action are treated as pragmatically equivalent. This mapping yields a three-tier hierarchy of syntactic, semantic, and pragmatic information, in which each successive abstraction removes distinctions that are irrelevant to the task. We then define pragmatic entropy, up/down pragmatic mutual information, channel capacity, and rate-distortion, and prove lossless source coding, channel coding, and rate-distortion theorems that extend Shannon's results. These measures quantify decision uncertainty, reliable transmission, and task-oriented compression at the level of terminal actions. We further introduce pragmatic value of information (VoI) and pragmatic cost of information (CoI) as decision-theoretic duals to rate-distortion and capacity, and develop a Lagrangian dual framework for cross-layer optimization. The resulting pragmatic efficiency bound $\mathcal{E}_p(λ)=\sup_R[Φ_p(R)-λ\mathrm{CoI}_p(R)]$ characterizes the maximum net utility attainable by a resource-constrained intelligent system under a given resource price, yielding a behavioral capacity that extends Shannon's symbol-level capacity to goal-directed action. Extensions to continuous messages provide closed-form expressions for Gaussian channels and sources, while dynamic settings are addressed through a Bellman equation for sequential decision-making. The framework supports task-oriented communication, networked control, autonomous systems, and embodied AI by shifting emphasis from symbol fidelity to the effectiveness of information in guiding actions. In this way, it offers a common language for systems that extract value from information under resource constraints.