ASPaeroFlow: Decomposition Heuristics for Joint Air Traffic Flow & Capacity Management

Operational Air Traffic Flow and Capacity Management (ATFCM) balances flight demand with available sector capacity, to ensure safe and efficient operations. Mathematical models enhance operational ATFCM performance by framing demand-capacity balancing as an optimization problem, maximizing efficiency while adhering to safety constraints. However, SOTA research optimizes the aircraft trajectories (called ATFM) or the sector configuration (called DAC) separately. This leaves a research gap of whether joint optimization of ATFM and DAC can bring benefits. We partially address this limitation by introducing a joint ATFCM model with an encoding in Answer Set Programming (ASP). The ASP implementation is evaluated against two baselines applied to our joint model: a SOTA Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) model and an iterative CASA-based heuristic. Computational experiments utilize an instance generator fitted to historical OpenSky Network flight data. Our results indicate that the ASP model outperforms the MIP model, while ASP remains competitive against heuristics on small instances. Furthermore, while DAC has the largest improvement on solving performance compared to rerouting and delaying, unrestricted variants of DAC or rerouting lead to search space thrashing.

Short-term air traffic flow prediction in terminal airspace is essential for proactive air traffic management. Existing approaches predominantly model traffic flow as aggregated time series. However, traffic dynamics are governed by aircraft states and their interactions in continuous airspace. Such aggregation obscures fine-grained information, including aircraft kinematics, boundary interactions, and control intent. Here we present AeroSense, a state-to-flow modeling paradigm that predicts future traffic flow directly from instantaneous airspace situations represented as dynamic sets of aircraft states derived from ADS-B trajectories. By establishing an end-to-end mapping from microscopic aircraft states to future regional traffic flow, AeroSense preserves aircraft-level dynamics while naturally accommodating varying traffic density without relying on historical look-back windows. Experiments on a large-scale real-world dataset show that AeroSense exhibits admirable predictive accuracy and robustness over aggregation-based forecasting approaches, particularly during high-density traffic periods. These findings suggest that aircraft-state situation modeling provides a promising alternative to conventional time-series forecasting in air traffic flow management.

Building accurate decision-support tools for next-generation air traffic control requires robust trajectory prediction models. We present a flow-matching architecture trained exclusively on historical aircraft trajectories, with no route labels or chart supervision. Trained on 1.15 million Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast trajectory windows collected over the San Francisco Bay Area, the model generates aircraft trajectory distributions that closely match historical traffic, reproducing known airspace structure around San Francisco Airport such as the shape of SFO's published NIITE FOUR departure procedure. Our model is trained directly on the native, irregular ADS-B sampling interval. Trajectory prediction is cast as sequence inpainting using a block-causal Transformer that denoises future state tokens conditioned on the observed history using Conditional Flow Matching or Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models. We compare our architecture against constant-velocity, deterministic-Long Short Term Memory, and Conditional Variational Autoencoders baselines. At matched parameter count, CFM outperforms DDPM by 11-26% in minADE@20, and both generative objectives surpass the CVAE baseline by 31-41%. We further show that the error degrades gracefully with prediction horizon, and the architecture remains effective when retrained on temporally decimated feeds. Lastly, we sample $K$ independent completions, yielding spatial probabilistic occupancy estimates that can serve as input to downstream conflict-risk estimation.