Organizations: The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen · Shanghai Jiao Tong University · University of California, Santa Cruz · University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences · University of California, Los Angeles · Researcher, JD.com
Abstract
Activation steering turns localized representations into control directions, but localization alone does not reveal whether a direction has a selective operating regime. We introduce Predictive Memory Localization (PML), which treats the measured-grid intervention path as the predictive object of memory localization. PML separates random-calibrated target movement from semantic-neighbor and capability damage, and compares static localization and supervised geometry with a strength-disjoint low-dose causal response. Our frozen study covers 3,000 records from nine datasets and fourteen domains, yielding 30,000 distinct record-direction-layer paths and 210,000 distinct path-strength evaluations. At layer 7, the geometry-derived RFM/AGOP direction reaches 13.1% target-any and 12.3% clean-any, exceeding random by 3.6 and 3.4 percentage points under a record-paired bootstrap. Across record-, dataset-, and domain-grouped splits, responses at ∣α∣=0.1 are the strongest signal for outcomes at disjoint strengths ∣α∣∈{0.25,0.5}. On held-out records, a predictor-driven selector chooses a coefficient or abstains, improves utility and reduces semantic-neighbor damage relative to a train-tuned fixed-strength policy, and avoids most evaluations in a dense scan. Across three residual-norm-matched base models, learned directions retain selective-path gains and low-dose responses yield 0.801-0.828 record-held-out macro AUROC. PML therefore turns memory localization into a falsifiable forecast of margin-level selective outcomes and a risk-aware intervention decision.
Language-agent "memory palace" systems anchor each memory to a world coordinate, on the intuition that geometry adds something text cannot. We make that intuition testable and report three results. First, the memory-palace default of folding spatial proximity into a linear blend beside recency and importance does not help and can hurt: in a pre-registered recall experiment the shipped blend fails its own frozen test (mean Delta-Hit@5 -0.0375, Wilcoxon p=0.306), sitting at a position-blind baseline, while a geometry-led weighting wins decisively (+0.3208, p<10^-15): geometry must lead recall when the query regime is spatial. Second, memory recall and visibility must be separated: recall is occlusion-blind by design (you correctly remember the next room behind a wall), while visibility is a perception predicate over stored geometry that the live system never computed. A one-line ray-versus-voxel digital differential analyzer (DDA), re-pointed from the gaze ray the agent already casts, supplies it: text and the live FoV cone both score 0.000 on 849 behind-wall targets while cone-plus-DDA reaches 0.982 (exact McNemar p<10^-6); coordinate recall separately resolves near-duplicate locations a cosine null cannot (1.000 vs 0.533, n=150). Third, the visibility predicate is confirmed live under a git-committed pre-registration (SPMEM-OCC-LIVE-v1: eight scripted worlds, automated oracle scoring, 96 behind-wall targets, false-visible 1.000->0.000, pooled exact McNemar p=2.5x10^-29), a run that surfaced and fixed a real relay anchor defect. We concede that occlusion-needs-geometry is near-tautological; the contribution is the measurement and isolation, separating what spatial memory must store from how it is read. These pilots power a frozen confirmatory study (SPMEM-ZERO-REAL-PREREG-v1); the full human-authored multi-world study with blind raters remains future work.
Predicting a user's next Point-of-Interest (POI) based on their historical check-in records is a fundamental task in location-based services. While recent methods incorporating large language models have shown strong reasoning capabilities and promising results, they typically formulate the prediction task as a one-step trajectory-to-location mapping problem, making predictions prone to shallow trajectory correlations and historical frequency bias. We argue that users rarely choose locations directly and instead, they usually first form a traveling intention and then accordingly select specific POIs. Motivated by this insight, we propose IntentPOI, a two-stage intention-guided reasoning framework. In the thinking stage, we infer users' intermediate intentions by incorporating historical mobility patterns, similar peer behaviors, and the temporal contexts. In the acting stage, we first construct a compact candidate pool, and then perform intention-guided reasoning to identify locations that best align with the inferred intention. By explicitly decoupling intention inference from location prediction, IntentPOI transforms the next POI prediction from direct trajectory matching into intention-guided reasoning. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that IntentPOI consistently outperforms eleven state-of-the-art baselines.
Steering vectors work for some concepts and layers but fail for others, and practitioners have no way to predict which setting applies before running an intervention. We introduce the Linear Accessibility Profile (LAP), a per-layer diagnostic that repurposes the logit lens as a predictor of steering vector effectiveness. The key measure, Alin, applies the model's unembedding matrix to intermediate hidden states, requiring no training. Across 24 controlled binary concept families on five models (Pythia-2.8B to Llama-8B), peak Alin predicts steering effectiveness at ρ=+0.86 to +0.91 and layer selection at ρ=+0.63 to +0.92. A three-regime framework explains when difference-of-means steering works, when nonlinear methods are needed, and when no method can work. An entity-steering demo confirms the prediction end-to-end: steering at the LAP-recommended layer redirects completions on Gemma-2-2B and OLMo-2-1B-Instruct, while the middle layer (the standard heuristic) has no effect on either model.