Operational telemetry can be jointly anomalous while every individual stream stays inside its familiar range. TRACE-C is an auditable strictly-prior rank-calibrated detector for aligned multi-stream telemetry: same-regime rolling median/MAD residuals feed three window channels -- a maximum normalized local sum, a Gaussian copula-form dependence contrast on robust-z residuals, and a worst standardized AR(1) innovation -- whose channel ranks are Fisher-aggregated and ranked against earlier aggregates. We evaluate six Great Britain grid streams with a January-April 2019 fit, July-December 2019 development evidence, and a 2020 hold-out frozen before inspection. TRACE-C ranks Storm Atiyah first among 2019 test windows, but a disclosed channel ablation attributes that rank to the local channel, not the copula-form channel: copula-only ranks Atiyah 59th. The short 9 August frequency event is ranked far lower by the fused detector (143) than by the temporal channel alone (40), and reconstruction baselines rank it first. In 2020 no window is selected, which is consistent with record-rule saturation rather than an uneventful year; the highest-ranked frozen window was later interpreted as Storm Ellen. Three interpretive limits carry throughout. The resulting p-values are selection quantities, not event probabilities. The copula-form channel is not a literal copula density: the method applies no probability-integral or normal-score transform. Empirical rank counts are diagnostics, not coverage or false-discovery proofs. Every table and figure in this paper is generated from committed machine-readable reports.
Figures & tables
Figure 1: Empirical rank diagnostics under the shared scoring envelope: observed counts of outer rank values at thresholds .05 and .01 , expressed as a ratio to the arithmetic benchmark αn (dashed line). Values are read directly from the committed reports. Descriptive only: autocorrelation, drift, reused references, and known events preclude reading these as uniform p -value or false-discovery guarantees (Section 5 ).
Figure 2: Frozen 2020 segment: aggregate score S for each of the 4392 two-hour windows, scored with strictly-prior references under the configuration committed before 2020 data was examined. Shaded bands mark the post-hoc event annotations (Storms Ciara and Dennis; the COVID-19 lockdown onset). The record rule selected no 2020 window (Section 5 ); event windows rank in the upper tail without crossing the record threshold.
Segment and threshold
Observed/reference
2019 development, p≤.05
120/110.4
2019 development, p≤.01
23/22.1
2020 pre-COVID, p≤.05
50/45.0
2020 pre-COVID, p≤.01
3/9.0
2020 full year, p≤.05
205/219.6
Table 1: Empirical rank-p diagnostics. Expected counts are exchangeable-score references, not time-series coverage guarantees.
Annotation
Segment
Best rank
Best p
Opportunity windows
GB frequency event
2019 development
143
0.060420
5
Storm Atiyah
2019 development
1
0.000350
12
Storm Ciara
2020 frozen hold-out
44
0.012058
24
Storm Dennis
2020 frozen hold-out
137
0.033217
24
Lockdown transition (14 days; best 2020-03-28 06:00)
2020 frozen hold-out
45
0.012559
168
Table 2: TRACE-C event-window ranks. Labels are used only for post-hoc evaluation.
External interpretation
Rank
Timestamp
p
Storm Ellen (post-ranking interpretation)
1
2020-08-20 03:00
0.000504
Storm Alex (post-ranking interpretation)
5
2020-10-03 23:00
0.001539
Table 3: Externally interpreted, top-ranked 2020 windows. Neither name was a detector annotation and no 2020 window passed the frozen record rule.
Variant
Channels
Atiyah rank
Blackout rank
Alerts
full (L+G+T)
local+copula+temporal
1 (alert)
143
2
drop copula
local+temporal
2
69
1
drop local
copula+temporal
3
119
0
drop temporal
local+copula
5
338
1
local only
local
3
241
0
copula only
copula
59
323
0
Table 4: 2019 development-year channel ablation, not a hold-out. The full detector’s Atiyah lead channel was inspected before these reruns. Lower rank is better.
Detector
Blackout
Atiyah
Ciara
Dennis
Lockdown window
Pre-COVID p≤.05
TRACE-C
143
1
44
137
45 (2020-03-28)
50/45.0
Convolutional autoencoder
1
34
1
29
46 (2020-04-05)
27/45.0
PCA reconstruction
1
12
12
34
22 (2020-04-05)
82/45.0
Isolation Forest
2
3
10
178
1 (2020-04-05)
49/45.0
Spectral Residual
2
26
12
38
6 (2020-03-28)
93/45.0
Table 5: Post-hoc detector comparison. Lower event rank is better. The lockdown column searches a 168-window interval; parenthesized dates show each detector’s best window. Protocols are not identical and only TRACE-C was frozen before 2020 inspection.