Structure-Aware Unsupervised Anomaly Detection for Spacecraft Telemetry with Adaptive EVT Thresholding

A hierarchical ensemble pipeline is introduced to address anomaly detection in multivariate telemetry data provided by European Space Agency (ESA). The method integrates shapelet-based and statistical feature extraction, per-channel modeling, intra-channel stacking, and a final cross-channel aggregation. The pipeline is trained and validated using time-series cross-validation and two-level masking strategies to prevent information leakage. Results on the European Space Agency Anomaly Detection Benchmark (ESA-ADB) challenge demonstrate strong generalization, highlighting the effectiveness of hierarchical modeling in detecting subtle anomalies in realistic satellite telemetry.

Detecting orbital anomalies, such as maneuvers, atmospheric decay, and attitude upsets, across the rapidly growing population of low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellites is a prerequisite for collision avoidance, decay forecasting, and conjunction screening. The bottleneck is not modeling capacity but labels: there is no public ground-truth corpus of orbital anomalies, manual review does not scale to approximately 10^4 active satellites, and pure rule-based detectors trade recall for precision so aggressively that they are blind to most behavioral anomalies. We present a multi-tier labeling cascade that composes three weak supervision sources of increasing fidelity: a fast physics rule set (rule_v1), an Interacting Multiple Model Unscented Kalman Filter (IMM-UKF) bank, and a supplemental-element calibration step (supGP), to produce labels at a scale unavailable from any single source. Applied to 232M Two-Line Element (TLE) records spanning 60 years, the cascade yields 8.6M labeled sequences of length 50 (430M timesteps) over 11 features that include explicit time encoding and full mean-element state. On overlapping satellites, IMM-UKF surfaces 42.6x more anomalies than rule_v1 alone. We train a 6.5M-parameter Transformer in two stages, achieving a maneuver recall of 55.4% and decay recall of 62.8% on a held-out test set. An ablation on the time-delta feature alone yields a 107% relative improvement in decay recall. We frame the resulting model as a high-recall triage classifier whose role is to surface candidate events for downstream filtering, not to issue final attributions, and discuss the path toward a Neural-ODE-based orbital world model.

Automotive anomaly detectors are often selected from accuracy only benchmarks on workstation class hardware, whereas in-vehicle monitoring requires predictable scoring latency under limited CPU parallelism. This mismatch can make methods that appear competitive offline infeasible for deployment. We present ECoLAD (Efficiency Compute Ladder for Anomaly Detection), a deployment-oriented evaluation protocol for automotive time-series anomaly detection (TSAD). ECoLAD defines a monotone compute reduction ladder with explicit CPU thread caps, mechanical integer only hyperparameter scaling, inference/full run timing separation, and auditable run logs. Applied to proprietary in-vehicle telemetry and two public benchmarks, it shows that accuracy stability and deployment feasibility can diverge: some deep detectors retain AUC-PR while losing feasible throughput, whereas lightweight classical detectors sustain high scoring rates with positive lift above the random baseline, providing a practical screening procedure for detector selection under deployment relevant constraints.