Real-Time Musculoskeletal Surrogates for Pediatric Cerebral Palsy: a Credibility Pilot
Organizations: College of Science and Technology, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC, USA
Abstract
Real-time musculoskeletal (MSK) surrogates could support personalized rehabilitation for children with cerebral palsy (CP), but their credibility depends on subject-wise evaluation, low inference latency, and calibrated uncertainty. We develop a subject-conditioned causal neural surrogate using OpenSim-derived static parameters, temporal joint kinematics, true muscle capacities, and training-only perturbations. On a real pediatric CP gait dataset comprising nine children, we use leave-one-subject-out validation on six development subjects and evaluate a frozen configuration once on three locked test subjects. The surrogate accurately reproduces musculotendon lengths (R-square = 0.92 in development validation and approximately 0.95 on locked subjects; nRMSE < 8%) while requiring only sub-millisecond to few-millisecond neural inference, well below a 100 ms interactive-rehabilitation target. In contrast, direct muscle-force estimation remains unstable at this small, heterogeneous scale: pooled metrics can overstate within-subject, per-muscle accuracy. A Monte Carlo credibility pilot further shows that propagating only +/-5% anthropometry and muscle-capacity variation produces severely overconfident nominal 90% intervals (approximately 4% force coverage and below 1% MT-length coverage). These results establish a leakage-free evaluation and credibility framework for pediatric MSK surrogates, while identifying force modeling and epistemic uncertainty as the central next challenges for clinically credible digital twins.
Figures & tables
| Subject | Severity | Frames | Split |
| MI01 | Mild | 674 | Dev |
| MI02 | Mild | 893 | Dev |
| MO02 | Moderate | 799 | Dev |
| MO03 | Moderate | 749 | Dev |
| SE01 | Severe | 838 | Dev |
| SE02 | Severe | 889 | Dev |
| Set | Subject | Force | MT length | Joint moment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dev. | MI01 | 0.380 | 0.974 | -0.019 |
| Dev. | MI02 | -0.050 | 0.512 | -0.024 |
| Dev. | MO02 | 0.441 | 0.951 | 0.000 |
| Dev. | MO03 | 0.486 | 0.987 | -0.014 |
| Dev. | SE01 | -0.635 | 0.986 | -0.013 |
| Dev. | SE02 | 0.374 | 0.919 | -0.007 |