Repurchase recommenders in e-commerce are commonly framed as a binary question asking "will this customer buy this item within W days", a formulation that requires a separately trained model for every horizon of interest. We replace this stack with survival models that predict time-to-repurchase directly, and evaluate them on millions of customers from a major grocery e-commerce platform across more than thirty ablation configurations. Our study makes three contributions. First, an empirical hazard analysis reveals a slightly decreasing marginal hazard (k ~ 0.9), differing from the common intuition that grocery items become more likely to be repurchased the longer since the last purchase (increasing hazard, k > 1). Log-Normal achieves the best marginal fit (R^2 = 0.998) and the best ranking, despite Weibull providing the best conditional residual fit, revealing an apparent discrepancy we analyze in detail. Second, a single Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model replaces three per-horizon binary classifiers, matching or exceeding each at its own horizon while using roughly 3x fewer total trees. Feature importance reshuffles under the survival objective: channel-cadence and recency signals rise while aggregate frequency counts fall. Third, a 4-parameter parametric calibration maps raw survival CDFs to per-horizon probabilities with zero cross-horizon monotonicity violations. Calibration quality varies by an order of magnitude across the AFT family: Exponential AFT (Weibull k=1) achieves expected calibration error (ECE) ~1e-4, roughly 10x lower than Log-Normal, while ranking metrics agree within 0.3% relative. We adopt Exponential AFT for probability-consuming surfaces and Log-Normal for pure ranking, exposing a principled calibration-ranking trade-off within a single AFT family.
Next-basket repurchase recommendation is commonly formulated as a ranking task: given a customer's purchase history, the system ranks previously purchased items that may be needed again. In production settings, however, ranking accuracy is only one component of recommendation quality. Customers may also benefit from concise evidence about why an item is recommended now. Large language models (LLMs) offer a potential way to surface such evidence through feature-based, human-readable rationales grounded in interpretable behavioral signals. We construct repurchase features spanning cadence, frequency, recency, user behavior, and item popularity, and evaluate LLMs on two public grocery datasets and one proprietary retail dataset. We investigate (1) whether off-the-shelf LLMs can use these features as next-basket scorers relative to heuristic and supervised rankers, and (2) whether LLM-cited features carry outcome-grounded ranking signal. For the latter, we compare LLM-cited features with model-specific attribution methods under a cross-model feature-masking protocol that measures ranking degradation after masking selected features. Our results show that LLM scores are not competitive with supervised rankers, suggesting that off-the-shelf LLMs should not be used as standalone repurchase recommenders. However, changes in prompt and evidence representation can improve outcome-grounded feature-masking results in some settings even when ranking performance does not improve; the effect is dataset-dependent and does not consistently match attribution baselines. These findings suggest a practical role for LLMs as validated explanation components rather than primary rankers, with rationale quality evaluated separately from ranking accuracy.
Large language models (LLMs) can summarize heterogeneous user evidence in natural language, but current LLM recommenders often collapse enduring preferences, transient intent, and exposure-induced behavior into one profile. This makes recommendation vulnerable to feedback loops: repeated exposure is mistaken for preference, immediate clicks dominate delayed satisfaction, and fluent explanations need not reflect the ranking decision. We propose our method, a model-agnostic framework for long-horizon recommendation. Our method uses a frozen multimodal language model to convert item content and feedback into evidence-grounded semantic atoms, then maintains separate short-term, long-term, and exposure memories. Propensity-weighted updates reduce policy-induced exposure bias, while a conservative offline critic reranks candidates for delayed satisfaction under a behavior-support constraint. Explanations use only influential evidence atoms and are checked by counterfactual deletion. We provide an identification result and evaluate the framework in e-commerce-like, news-like, and short-video-like environments. Across ten seeds, our method improves discounted long-term value over the strongest alternative by 6.1%, 7.6%, and 6.7%, respectively. Twenty-seed paired ablations show significant value drops after removing propensity correction (0.739 +/- 0.191) or conservative support regularization (0.523 +/- 0.234). A frozen instruction language model also more than doubles semantic-atom NDCG over TF-IDF on a held-out paraphrase benchmark.
In recent years, electronic (E) commerce services have rapidly increased in the daily lives of people, which helpsthem to purchase products online. However, retail platforms have struggled to understand customer behavior and make it difficult to predict their future purchases. To overcome these challenges, this study proposes a hybrid Retail Deep NeuralNetwork (Ret-DNN) with an Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost) model for capturing temporal features and tabular dynamics of retail data. First, data were sourced from a UnitedKingdom (UK)-based online retailer that contains transactions with almost 500,000 records. Then, the collected data were pre-processed using a series of techniques, such as data cleaning, outlier handling, temporal feature extraction, feature encoding, and z-score normalization, to ensure that the data were ready for model training and testing. Subsequently, the preprocessed data were fed into the Ret-DNN model, which acts as a feature extractor to understand the complete context of customer transactions. Further, the extracted data were fed as input into the XGBoost model, which predicted the final output as the purchase probability of customers. Finally, the proposed Ret-DNN XGBoost model achieved better results by attaining aMean Absolute Error (MAE) 0.2193 when compared to the existing Ret-DNN model. Keywords: Customer behavior forecasting, extreme gradientboosting, electronic commerce, predictive analytic, retail deepneural networks.