A Generalization of Amari's Bayesian Duality

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) enhance the interpretability of machine learning models by identifying the smallest change to an input required to obtain a desired output. Although CEs are conventionally formulated as a distance-minimization problem, the theoretical basis of this formulation has received limited attention. We show that a distance-minimization-based CE is mathematically equivalent to the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of a Gibbs posterior within the generalized Bayes framework, specifically when a distance-based prior is used. We call this formulation the Distance-Prior Generalized Bayes CE (DP-GBCE). Building on this posterior perspective, we introduce two decision rules beyond MAP within a unified framework: a Bayes decision that minimizes expected decision loss and CVaR-CE, a risk-averse decision rule. We also propose an extension that uses Bayesian model weights to mix the posterior distributions of multiple models, thereby accounting for model multiplicity, where several models have comparable predictive performance. Finally, we define metrics for evaluating both individual CEs and the posterior distribution as a whole, and use experiments on simulated data and Google Trends data to quantify the trade-offs among the decision rules.

We present an alternative characterization of the occupancy measure of reinforcement learning, obtained by embedding the planning criterion into the dynamics through a resetting planning process. Its stationary measure, which we term visitation measure, is the object on which the information geometry of decision making is most naturally expressed. The achievable visitation measures form a dually flat statistical manifold whose two affine charts are the visitation probabilities and the log-policies, dual under the conditional entropy. This structure makes planning-as-inference generalize from linear rewards to nonlinear functionals of the visitation, each iterate solved by one natural-gradient step, and gives the temporal-difference error the interpretation of a marginal-utility estimate. We develop the geometry and its consequences for reinforcement learning and theoretical neuroscience.

Exponential families encompass the distributions central to modern machine learning -- softmax, Gaussians, and Boltzmann distributions -- and underlie the theory of variational inference, entropy-regularized reinforcement learning, and RLHF. We isolate a simple identity for exponential families that expresses the KL difference $\mathrm{KL}(q \| p_{λ_2}) - \mathrm{KL}(q \| p_{λ_1})$ in terms of the log-partition function $A(λ)$ and the moment $μ_q$. Remarkably, this identity together with the single fact that $\mathrm{KL} \geq 0$ (with equality iff $p = q$) suffices, by direct substitution and rearrangement, to derive a cluster of results that are classically obtained by separate, heavier arguments: a generalized three-point identity for arbitrary reference distributions, Pythagorean theorems for I-projections and reverse I-projections, convexity of the log-partition function, identification of its Legendre dual in KL terms, the Gibbs variational principle, and the explicit optimizer in KL-regularized reward maximization, including the exponential tilting formula underlying entropy-regularized control and RLHF. Beyond these purely algebraic consequences, standard analytic arguments recover the gradient formula for the log-partition function, the Bregman representation of within-family KL divergence, and the surjectivity of the moment map. The note is self-contained.