scDEFT: A deep learning framework for drug-effect prediction and counterfactual reasoning

Virtual-cell models aim to predict how cell populations respond to perturbations, but control and treated cells are measured as unpaired populations, complicating the learning of perturbation-specific effects. We present SCALE, a conditional transport model that represents cells as unordered sets and predicts treated populations without cell-level matching. A shared set-aware encoder and conditional DiT backbone learn latent transport, making endpoint supervision directly delta-aligned without an auxiliary delta objective. Across genetic, chemical, developmental and immune perturbations, SCALE recovered gene-expression changes, response directions and population structure. In CRISPR data with dominant cell-line effects, SCALE outperformed competing methods across seven metrics and maintained separation among gene-target representations rather than collapsing them into a shared region. SCALE further prioritized cytokines predicted to produce distinct immune activation and inflammatory responses. Experiments using matched PBMC samples from three donors confirmed these predicted differences. Together, SCALE enables perturbation-specific prediction from unpaired populations and supports experimental prioritization.

Large-scale single-cell perturbation atlases make it possible to ask an inverse question: given an observed transcriptional response, which annotated targets and compounds in a fixed library are most consistent with that response? We present \model, a Transformer retrieval model for this closed-library setting. Each input is a cell-level perturbation signature formed by contrasting one treated cell with a cell-line-specific mean DMSO reference. The encoder maps the signature to a target-retrieval vector and a molecular-embedding vector, trained jointly with supervised target losses and structure--transcriptome alignment. We evaluate on Tahoe-100M conditions with mapped target annotations using a within-compound stratified 90/10 condition-pair split of 10,505 training and 1,168 validation drug--cell-line pairs. Because compounds and cell lines can occur in both partitions, the experiment measures held-out condition-pair retrieval rather than generalization to unseen compounds or cellular contexts. In a Monte Carlo evaluation over 38,400 sampled validation cells, \model\ achieved target Recall@10 of 0.408 and Recall@20 of 0.544, together with compound Hit@1 of 0.129, Hit@10 of 0.343, and mean reciprocal rank of 0.205 over a 379-compound bank. A separate diagnostic evaluation produced nearly identical values for the main model and large gains over a random-vector control and post-hoc bag-of-genes controls. These results demonstrate that a single multi-task model can recover both mapped target annotations and recorded compound identities from observed cell-level responses in the evaluated Tahoe-100M closed-library setting. Generalization to unseen compounds and cellular contexts remains to be established.

Predicting cellular transcriptional responses to genetic perturbations is a central problem in single-cell biology, especially in the zero-shot setting where the perturbed gene or gene combination is unseen during training. A major difficulty is that perturbation effects are not determined by expression state alone: they depend on how the perturbed gene product influences other genes and proteins, how those downstream factors act on cis-regulatory elements, and which regulatory programs are active in the current cell state. To better capture this biological complexity, we propose CisTransCell, a cell-conditioned multi-modal framework for single-cell perturbation prediction that augments each gene with two complementary priors: a regulatory-sequence prior that captures how the gene is controlled, and a coding-sequence prior that captures what the gene product does. By integrating these priors with cellular expression state, CisTransCell models perturbation response as a cascade from gene function to regulatory control to downstream transcriptional change. Experiments on benchmark single-cell perturbation datasets show that CisTransCell achieves strong performance in zero-shot perturbation prediction.