Physics-Informed Conformal Prediction: Embedding PDE Consistency into Distribution-Free Uncertainty Quantification for Neural Operators

Neural operators such as the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) have emerged as powerful surrogates for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), achieving speedups of several orders of magnitude over traditional numerical solvers. However, deploying these models in safety-critical engineering applications -- such as thermal management of electronic components and battery systems -- requires not only accurate point predictions but also rigorous uncertainty guarantees. Existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for neural operators, including Monte Carlo Dropout and Deep Ensembles, provide only relative uncertainty estimates without formal coverage guarantees. In this work, we propose the first application of split conformal prediction to neural operator-based physics simulation, providing distribution-free prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees. We further introduce a normalized conformal prediction scheme that leverages MC Dropout uncertainty to produce adaptive-width intervals, yielding tighter intervals in regions of low uncertainty and wider intervals where the model is less certain. Full-scale experiments (33.7M parameters, 800 training samples, 5 ensemble members, NVIDIA V100) on steady-state heat conduction benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves 89.1% empirical coverage at the target level of alpha=0.1, while producing spatially adaptive prediction intervals that reflect the underlying physical uncertainty structure. We also provide an uncertainty decomposition framework that separates epistemic uncertainty (68% of total) from aleatoric uncertainty (32% of total), offering actionable guidance for data collection and model improvement. Our method is implemented in an open-source platform with REST API endpoints and interactive 3D visualization.

Neural operators evaluate parametric partial differential equations cheaply but degrade sharply outside their training distribution. Physics-informed neural networks avoid dependence on labeled data, yet their optimization can be basin-fragile: when the governing residual admits multiple solutions, a PINN trained from scratch may converge to a physically incorrect state despite achieving a small residual. We show that these failure modes can be addressed jointly: an imperfect NO provides the structural prior needed to place a PINN in the correct solution basin, while the PDE residual refines the solution beyond the operator's accuracy. We introduce a three-stage framework that freezes the spatial basis of a physics-informed NO, extrapolates its solution branch to an out-of-distribution parameter using a polynomial continuation prior, and distills the resulting field into a fresh PINN. The NO need not be accurate at the target; it transfers solution-branch information, while PDE residual minimization in the PINN governs convergence. We evaluate the framework on three nonlinear PDEs: 1D viscous Burgers, 2D steady Allen-Cahn near a pitchfork bifurcation, and 2D steady lid-driven cavity flow. For Allen-Cahn, where the trivial solution satisfies the PDE residual exactly, a standard PINN collapses to the trivial zero branch, whereas distillation from the crude extrapolated operator recovers the non-trivial branch that matches the finite-difference reference. For the lid-driven cavity, extrapolating to a Reynolds number of Re = 3200 accelerates convergence to the correct physical state, achieving competitive accuracy using fewer parameters and optimization steps than recent literature baselines. These results establish a simple principle: an NO need not accurately predict the solution to be useful; it only needs to identify the correct basin from which PINN optimization can recover it.

In this paper, we propose a perturbation-based conformal prediction framework for uncertainty quantification in operator learning, with a focus on the 2D Navier--Stokes equations. While neural operators provide fast surrogates for expensive PDE solvers, they do not by themselves provide calibrated uncertainty for spatiotemporal field predictions. Our approach wraps a trained Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) with split conformal prediction and constructs the local uncertainty scale by comparing the predictions of two operators trained on nearly identical datasets: one on the original labels and one on labels perturbed by small Gaussian noise. We consider this procedure in the data-scarce regime, where the total label budget is fixed and methods that require a separate uncertainty network must divide training data between multiple models. On the 2D Navier--Stokes benchmark, the perturbation-based method produces substantially narrower conformal bands than existing methods under matched total data budgets while maintaining the target simultaneous coverage. These results suggest that perturbation sensitivity is a practical and sample-efficient uncertainty proxy for conformalized neural operators.