Optimizing Geoengineering Interventions Using Differentiable Climate Models

As deep learning for physical systems continues to grow in popularity, efforts to improve generalizability have primarily focused on designing architectures that embed physical constraints. However, for machine-learning surrogate climate models (emulators), we show that the low structural diversity in existing scenarios commonly used to generate training data places a ceiling on predictive skill. Here, we examine whether training datasets themselves can be optimized to improve generalization. We introduce a method to create datasets that produce emulators capable of generalizing to new, structurally different scenarios absent from the training data. We use a differentiable Simple Climate Model (SCM) to calculate the sensitivity of emulator loss to perturbations in the training data, iteratively updating the training data to maximize emulator skill. For an SCM, training on one scenario optimized in this fashion outperforms an emulator trained on six standard ScenarioMIP pathways. We achieve this higher predictive skill despite training on a smaller dataset, finding that our emulator successfully isolates distinct physical behaviors of different climate forcing agents (e.g., greenhouse gases vs. aerosols) without single-forcing runs. We then demonstrate that scenarios optimized using an SCM, when used to drive an intermediate-complexity climate model, produce a training dataset that yields a more skillful emulator than training on ScenarioMIP outputs. Our results suggest that, in the compute-constrained environment of running full-scale climate models, generating a small number of dynamically rich scenarios provides greater marginal value for emulation and characterizing system responses than expanding the suite of traditional emissions pathways.

While general-purpose Large Language Models (LLMs) applied to Geology often hallucinate when reasoning about subsurface structures and deep-time evolution, current AI in Earth sciences predominantly targets surface remote sensing and GIS. To bridge this gap, we introduce Geo-Expert, a family of parameter-efficient geological LLMs fine-tuned on a custom-curated, high-quality instruction dataset processed using our custom instruction synthesis pipeline. We investigate the impact of model scaling and architecture by fine-tuning three base models: Qwen3-8B, Qwen3-32B, and Gemma-3-27B, with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) method. Our extensive evaluation on a novel domain-specific benchmark, Geo-Eval, reveals that a domain-aligned 8B model can outperform open-weight 70B generalists and proprietary GPT-4o on specialized geological reasoning, while a 32B variant approaches frontier reasoning models. The optimized 8B model further offers a competitive cost-performance ratio for deployment. This work provides a reproducible recipe for democratizing scientific LLMs and establishes a baseline for geological artificial intelligence.

Existing generative models for earth observation (EO) predominantly rely on fine-tuning natural image priors, which limits their scalability and introduces perspective biases that conflict with geospatial constraints. To address this, we introduce GeoCore-9B, a 9-billion-parameter generative foundation model, which is the first of its scale to be trained from scratch exclusively on EO data. Unlike previous EO foundation models, GeoCore-9B is built upon a Flow Matching-based Diffusion Transformer (DiT) and natively conditions generation on text descriptions and continuous geospatial metadata, including ground sample distances, latitudes, and longitudes. To overcome the convergence and spatial disorientation challenges of training at this scale, we propose a Geospatial Semantic Alignment loss. This objective distills structural Earth surface priors (e.g., terrain and urban areas) from a frozen specialist teacher network, constraining the diffusion latent trajectory during training without adding inference overhead. Pre-trained on the global-scale Git-10M dataset, GeoCore-9B demonstrates strong downstream versatility. Beyond standard proxy generative tasks, we show that GeoCore-9B can be effectively adapted for practical EO applications, including highly challenging tasks such as cloud removal and SAR-to-optical cross-modal translation. Extensive evaluations confirm that GeoCore-9B establishes new state-of-the-art performance in both visual fidelity and geographic structural accuracy.