An explicit solution of the five-expert prediction PDE and the exact optimality set of COMB

A central challenge in statistical modeling is identifying the subset of features that belong in the true regression model. The classical best subset selection problem, recently made tractable via mixed-integer optimization (MIO), finds the globally optimal sparse solution. It does not, however, make use of any information beyond the observed data. In many applied settings, domain experts can meaningfully rank or score the relevance of candidate predictors, yet no existing framework integrates such probabilistic expert assessments directly into the best-subsets objective. This paper presents Expert-Implied Bayesian Best Subsets (EBBS), a method that incorporates domain-expert probability estimates of feature relevance into the MIO best-subsets problem through a maximum a posteriori (MAP) framework. Expert views from multiple respondents are aggregated into a single prior probability per feature using the Poisson binomial distribution for marginal probability estimates, the pairwise win rate for pairwise comparisons, or the normalized mean rank for ordinal rankings. This probability enters the objective function as a log-odds penalty term that smoothly encourages or discourages the selection of each feature consistent with the expert consensus. This paper provides analytic derivations of the MAP formulation and characterizes its theoretical properties. The proposed model reduces to Best Subsets when experts all have no views. Empirical results on synthetic and real datasets are forthcoming.

We give an attribution method for neural combinatorial-optimisation (CO) policies that (i) decomposes a decision by constraint families via LP-relaxation duals, (ii) certifies counterfactuals through a combinatorial feasibility model (implemented as a CSP feasibility-decision model), and (iii) bounds the size of a PAC-sufficient explanation with a Bonferroni-corrected Hoeffding sufficient-subset test along a greedy ordering. Across three CO problems and three seeds, our LP-anchored $Λ$-attribution matches the CF-derived signal at 96.5% on CVRPTW (n_cert=344) and 77.2% on the Orienteering Problem (n_cert=281) vs 75.0% and 35.2% for proxy gradient (paired diffs +0.215 and +0.420; McNemar exact $p \le 10^{-14}$). In the rank-aligned regime of the Flexible Job-Shop Scheduling Problem, both backends agree on every CSP-certified flip (n_cert=59), confirming the no-gain prediction. Bonferroni-PAC subsets average 5.0 nodes per step ($M=70$, $\varepsilon=δ=0.2$, $k_{\max}=25$). Reference implementation: https://github.com/sohaibafifi/neuro-co-cax

Recent advances in neural operators have made partial differential equation (PDE) surrogate modeling increasingly scalable and transferable through large-scale pretraining and in-context adaptation. However, after a shared operator is fine-tuned to multiple regimes within a continuous physical family, it remains unclear whether the resulting weight-space updates merely form isolated regime experts or reveal reusable physical structure. Starting from a shared family anchor, we fine-tune low- and high-regime endpoint experts and show that their updates can be separated into a family-shared adaptation and a direction aligned with the underlying physical parameter. This separation reinterprets endpoint experts as finite-difference probes of a local physical direction in weight space, explaining why static averaging can interpolate between regimes but attenuates endpoint-specific physics. Building on this perspective, we propose Calibration-Conditioned Merge (CCM), a post-hoc coordinate readout method for composing neural PDE experts along this physical direction. Given physical metadata, a calibrated coordinate mapping, or a short observed rollout prefix, CCM infers the target composition coordinate and deploys a single merged checkpoint for the remaining rollout. We evaluate CCM on the reaction--diffusion system, viscosity-parameterized two-dimensional Navier--Stokes equations, and radial dam-break dynamics. Across these benchmarks, CCM achieves its strongest gains in extrapolative regimes, reducing out-of-distribution rollout error relative to the family anchor by 54.2%, 42.8%, and 13.8%, respectively. Further experiments across FNO scales, a DPOT-style backbone, and ablations confirm that endpoint fine-tuning is not arbitrary checkpoint drift, but reveals a calibratable physical direction for training-free transfer across PDE regimes.