Abstract
Joint motion forecasts pair each autonomous-vehicle (AV) future with surrounding traffic, but actor-level metrics do not show whether that structure matters to a planner. We study this question with a marginal-preserving product control that removes AV-traffic pairing among the learned modes while retaining the fixed constant-velocity pair and holding trajectories, actor-level marginals before planner conditioning, candidates, the cost terms and weights, and fallback fixed. The intervention also changes candidate-conditioned concentration. Across twelve runs on 1,400 held-out Argoverse 2 scenarios, the intervention changes 3.0% of route-level offline selections at τ=4 m. Control-minus-joint recorded-trajectory regret is −0.026 and −0.118 at the two training sizes; crossed and seed-t intervals span zero. At τ=1 m, relative costs change in 87.9% of route evaluations and route-level offline selections in 8.1%. Before concentration matching, descriptive outcome estimates favor the control. Most of this gap disappears along an approximate concentration-matching path; the remaining contrasts are +0.112 and −0.047, and both crossed intervals span zero. Actor-level forecast metrics remain identical. Pairing-strength and temperature sweeps show that the decision contrast grows with pairing removal and sharper conditioning. The intervention changes planner decisions even though actor-level metrics remain unchanged. The matching analysis, however, cannot separate any recorded-outcome effect of learned-mode AV-traffic pairing from the accompanying change in conditioned concentration.
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Marcello Ceresini, Federico Pirazzoli, Andrea Bertogalli +5
Jun 8, 2026cs.RO
In mixed-traffic environments where autonomous and human-driven vehicles may co-exist, motion planning for autonomous vehicles requires anticipating the future behaviors of surrounding human drivers. Existing reinforcement learning-based methods generally directly incorporate the predicted human intents into the observation to enable a proactive planning. However, human intent is inherently uncertain due to the behavioral diversity, perception noise, and partial observability. Treating predicted intends as deterministic states can result in unsafe decisions for autonomous vehicles. To address this problem, we propose Uncertainty-Aware Motion Planning (UAMP), which incorporates uncertainty in human intent prediction for AV decision-making. Specifically, UAMP first introduces a proximity-aware uncertainty estimator to quantify the interaction-conditioned intent uncertainty and constructs an uncertainty-guided joint intent distribution over surrounding human-driven vehicles. Within this uncertainty set, UAMP further introduces Uncertainty-Calibrated Value Learning (UCVL) to correct value function learning biases arising from directly incorporating uncertain human intent predictions into the observation. Extensive experiments in various mixed-traffic scenarios show that UAMP significantly improves safety and driving comfort, while maintaining traffic efficiency compared with existing approaches. The code is released at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/UAMP-5638.
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Safe and explainable motion planning remains a central challenge in autonomous driving. While rule-based planners offer predictable and explainable behavior, they often fail to grasp the complexity and uncertainty of real-world traffic. Conversely, learned planners exhibit strong adaptability but suffer from reduced transparency and occasional safety violations. We introduce Mosaic, a framework for structured decision-making that integrates both paradigms through arbitration graphs. By decoupling trajectory verification and selection from the generation of trajectories by individual planners, every decision becomes transparent and traceable. This separation lets verification and trajectory selection contribute independently: centralized verification acts as a safety floor, reducing at-fault collisions from 25 for each standalone planner to 16. In contrast, per-step trajectory selection acts as a performance ceiling, combining the complementary strengths of a rule-based and a learned planner. In experimental evaluation on nuPlan, Mosaic achieves 95.56 CLS-NR and 94.18 CLS-R on the Val14 closed-loop benchmark, setting a new state of the art. On the interPlan benchmark, focused on highly interactive and out-of-distribution scenarios, Mosaic scores 54.10 CLS-R, outperforming its best constituent planner by 22.8% -- all without retraining or requiring additional data. The code is available at github.com/KIT-MRT/mosaic.
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