PISCES: Physics-Informed Solar-wind Convolutional autoEncoder for Space-weather Anomaly Detection and Early Warning

Accurately predicting fast solar wind conditions is challenging, as uncertainties are large and unquantified by traditional single-value prediction models. In particular, the risks of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs), which can cause damage to technological infrastructure, cannot be reliably assessed without probabilistic forecasts. We present PROSWIN, a probabilistic machine learning model that forecasts the hourly solar wind speed (SWS) at Earth with a four-day lead time. The approach combines solar images and magnetograms using a deep neural network coupled to a distributional regression algorithm. Because standard error metrics underweight the relevance of HSS peaks, we further introduce the prediction score, a model-selection metric that jointly rewards timeline and HSS peak accuracy. On 14 years of data, our forecast achieves very well-calibrated uncertainties (<1% average deviation). Using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a metric that assesses distributional accuracy, we obtain a timeline CRPS of 41.0 km/s, an HSS peak CRPS of 45.3 km/s, and a prediction score of 42.3 km/s. We find that the 171 Å channel is an important complement to the typically used 193 Å and 211 Å channels and that the prediction score for model selection improves the applicability of the model. Compared to selected models from the literature, ours is the only one that is accurate for both timeline and HSS peak values, rather than trading one off against the other. These results support the advantages of probabilistic over single-value solar wind models. The introduced methods are also transferable to other forecasting problems.

Operational anomaly detection in spacecraft telemetry typically requires labeled historical anomalies or extended warm-up periods. These requirements are rarely met in practice. We propose an unsupervised, deployment-ready framework that produces predictions from the second month of operation without any labels, prior fault knowledge, or mission-specific tuning. The approach combines incremental monthly retraining, statistical model selection, and adaptive Extreme Value Theory (EVT) thresholding for false alarm control. On the ESA Anomalies Dataset (ESA-AD), it achieves $F_{0.5}=0.700$ on Mission1 and $F_{0.5}=0.698$ on Mission2 under strict chronological evaluation.

The plasma environment around Mars is highly variable because it is strongly influenced by the solar wind. Accurate identification of plasma regions around Mars is important for the community studying solar wind-Mars interactions, region-specific plasma processes, and atmospheric escape. In this study, we develop a machine-learning-based classifier to automatically identify three key plasma regions--solar wind, magnetosheath, and induced magnetosphere--using only ion omnidirectional energy spectra measured by the MAVEN Solar Wind Ion Analyzer (SWIA). Two neural network architectures are evaluated: a multilayer perceptron (MLP) and a convolutional neural network (CNN) that incorporates short temporal sequences. Our results show that the CNN can reliably distinguish the three plasma regions, whereas the MLP struggles to separate the solar wind and magnetosheath. Therefore, the CNN-based approach provides an efficient and accurate framework for large-scale plasma region identification at Mars and can be readily applied to future planetary missions.