ViBR-WM: Visual Bayesian Regression for World Modeling

Multivariate forecasting in physical systems requires models that predict coupled temporal variables while preserving meaningful state evolution. Deep forecasters can fit temporal correlations, and physics-informed models can regularize predictions with scientific constraints, but these directions are often connected only at the decoded-output level. As a result, the hidden predictive state that generates future trajectories may remain statistically useful but physically unstructured. We introduce Phys-JEPA, a physics-informed joint-embedding predictive architecture for multivariate time-series forecasting. Phys-JEPA learns a latent world model in which predictive states are decomposed into physical and residual components, and physical consistency is imposed directly on latent states and latent transitions rather than only on decoded forecasts. This formulation uses known physical variables to organize the representation space while retaining residual capacity for unresolved dynamics. On Jena Climate 2009--2016, Phys-JEPA reduces aggregate MSE from 0.12482 to 0.12273 and temperature MSE from 0.01892 to 0.01831 at H=24. On Traffic, full Phys-JEPA improves aggregate MSE over the supervised baseline across all tested horizons, reducing H=192 MSE from 0.800784 to 0.773873. On Electricity, the best variant depends on horizon: static latent consistency is strongest at H=24 and H=48, while full Phys-JEPA gives the best aggregate and target-variable MSE at H=192. These initial results suggest that moving physics-informed learning from output space to latent predictive state space is a promising direction for interpretable temporal world models.

Learning predictive world models from visual observations is a core problem in embodied AI, with applications to model-based reinforcement learning and robotic planning. Existing latent world models typically generate future states with unconstrained neural transition functions, while modern video generation systems often prioritize perceptual plausibility or introduce physical structure through auxiliary losses, external guidance, or separate dynamics modules. As a result, long-horizon rollouts can remain weakly grounded in the physical principles that govern real dynamics, leading to compounding error, energy drift, and physically inconsistent futures. We propose Least Action World Models (LaWM), a latent world-modeling framework that operationalizes the Principle of Least Action in learned visual latent space: future rollouts are governed by a learned Lagrangian action functional rather than produced only by an unconstrained transition predictor. Our main technical realization is a latent variational integrator: LaWM encodes observations into learned generalized coordinates, learns a latent discrete Lagrangian over consecutive latent states, constructs a discrete action functional, and advances prediction by solving the corresponding discrete integration condition. Thus, physical structure is not merely used to score, regularize, or constrain a completed trajectory; it defines the latent transition rule itself. Because the transition is induced by a discrete variational principle, LaWM provides a structure-preserving bias for long-horizon visual prediction. Across physics-clean synthetic dynamics and embodied robot interaction benchmarks, LaWM improves physical invariance, background consistency, motion smoothness, and appearance and geometric prediction metrics over video-generation and world-model baselines.

Earth Observation (EO) forecasting aims to predict future Earth surface dynamics from satellite observations under changing meteorological conditions. In this paper, we view this task as a partially observed, weather-driven world modeling problem, in which weather acts as a conditioning signal, while forecasting remains uncertain due to sparse observations and unobserved land-surface states. However, existing methods do not fully capture this setting: deterministic models collapse uncertainty into a single future prediction, while diffusion-based methods typically treat weather variables as undifferentiated conditioning signals, and existing benchmarks focus mainly on reconstruction accuracy rather than whether forecasts respond correctly to changed weather forcing.We introduce EO-WM, a video diffusion transformer for multispectral EO forecasting. EO-WM incorporates a physically informed conditioning framework that represents meteorological forcing through a climatological baseline, weather anomalies, and cumulative physical stress signals. Specifically, it separates baseline and anomaly through distinct conditioning pathways, and accumulates anomalous forcing over time to capture sustained heat and drought stress. To evaluate weather-response behavior beyond standard metrics, we introduce two diagnostic benchmarks: an Extreme Summer Benchmark for severity-aware prediction of vegetation degradation under extreme weather, and a Seasonal Matched-Pair Benchmark for testing response fidelity under changed weather forcing. Experiments show that EO-WM reduces the error in predicted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) decline amplitude by a relative 5.63% and improves directional hit rate by a relative 7.80%, while remaining competitive on standard pixel-level metrics. The benchmarks and model will be made open-source at https://github.com/Luo-Z13/EO-WM.