Posterior Predictive Distribution

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2 papers in the last four weeks, against 1 the four weeks before. 0.0% of all new papers.

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  1. MaPP: A Unified Marginalized Posterior-Predictive Framework for Data-Efficient RLVR

    Sep 28, 2026Yangyang Ren, Haodong Zhu, Sheng Xu +4Reinforcement Learning With Verifiable RewardPosterior Predictive Distribution

    Beihang University · Zhongguancun Academy · Communication University of China +4

  2. ViBR-WM: Visual Bayesian Regression for World Modeling

    Sep 27, 2026Jifan Li, Ning NingWorld ModelsFuture Video Prediction

    Department of Statistics, Texas A&M University College Station, TX 77843

  3. How Wrong Can a Good Predictor Be? Diverging Updates with Vanishing Predictive KL

    Sep 11, 2026Qifu Wen, Shuaijun Liu, Zihan Zhou +2Posterior Predictive DistributionKullback-Leibler Divergence

    Boston University, Boston, MA, USA · Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China · The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China

  4. Do Tabular Foundation Models Agree with Themselves?

    Aug 6, 2026Christian Klötergens, Vijaya Krishna Yalavarthi, Lars Schmidt-Thieme +1Tabular Foundation ModelsTime Series Foundation Models

    Institute of Computer Science & VWFS DARC, University of Hildesheim, Hildesheim, Germany

  5. Auditing Medical Vision-Language Models on Chest Radiographs: Estimating Reference Agreement Across Institutions

    Aug 1, 2026Pengyang Yu, Yiou Wang, Zhongping Dong +3Medical Vision-Language ModelsDigitally Reconstructed Radiographs

    School of Computer Science, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland · Department of Medical Imaging, The Third Affiliated Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China · Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland

  6. What does a Bayes-filtered transformer believe? A predictive Monte Carlo approach

    Jul 19, 2026Afiq Abdillah Effiezal Aswadi, Haotong Ma, Susan WeiPosterior Predictive DistributionTransformer Architectures

    Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics Monash University

  7. DP-BOA: Dirichlet-Process Birth-or-Assign for On-the-Fly Category Discovery

    Jul 15, 2026Peiyan Gu, Zixin Teng, Xuming HeGeneralized Category DiscoveryClassifier

    ShanghaiTech University, Shanghai, China · Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Intelligent Vision and Imaging

  8. DP-Splat: Bayesian Nonparametric Complexity Control for Gaussian Splatting

    Jul 12, 2026Aqi DongGaussian SplattingEmpirical Bayes

    Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

  9. A Causal DAG Prior for Synthetic Time-Series Classification Datasets

    Jun 19, 2026Franco Martino O'Rourke, Ana Trisovic, Dimitris BertsimasTabular Prior-Data Fitted NetworkTime-Series Classification

    Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA.

  10. Bayesian Model Averaging under Predictor Redundancy via Density-Ratio Posterior Compression

    Jun 19, 2026Hanqing Li, Xuewen Lu, Yuting ChenPosterior Predictive DistributionPosterior

    Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Calgary Calgary, AB T2N 1N4, Canada · Department of Mathematics and Statistics Eastern Kentucky University Richmond, KY 40475, USA

  11. Online Distributional Prediction via Latent Cluster Geometry Under Drift and Corruption

    Jun 17, 2026Navyansh Mahla, Prateek Chanda, Ganesh RamakrishnanLearning-Augmented AlgorithmsPosterior Predictive Distribution

    Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay

  12. Conformal Bayes under Label Shift: Post-Hoc Calibration vs. In-Training Adaptation

    Jun 10, 2026Seungjin ChoiPosterior Predictive Distribution

    1CROID Research and aSSIST University, Seoul, Korea.

  13. Predictive Coding with Bayesian Priors via Proximal Gradients

    Jun 6, 2026Francesco BulloPredictive CodingPosterior Predictive Distribution

    Mechanical Engineering, 2325 Engineering Bldg II, UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5070, USA

  14. Hierarchies of Calibration: Classification meets Regression

    Jun 2, 2026Johannes Resin, Lu Yang, Tilmann GneitingPosterior Predictive DistributionProbability

    1Goethe University Frankfurt · 3Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies · University of Minnesota +1

  15. Prior-Guided Frequency-Calibrated Virtual EEG Channel Inference from Four Frontal Electrodes for Wearable EEG Augmentation

    May 28, 2026Minghao XiaoElectroencephalographyPosterior Predictive Distribution

    School of Biomedical Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 511442, China · School of Automation Science and Engineering, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510640, China

  16. Semi-Supervised Hypothesis Testing by Betting on Predictions

    May 27, 2026Yaniv Tenzer, Elad Tolochinsky, Yaniv RomanoUnlabeled DataTwo-Sample Testing

    Department of Computer Science, Technion – Israel Institute of Technology · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Technion – Israel Institute of Technology

  17. Transformers Can Learn Posterior Predictive Distributions In-Context

    May 26, 2026Gyeonghun Kang, Changwoo J. Lee, Xiang ChengPosterior Predictive DistributionTransformer Architectures

    Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA · Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

  18. A Posterior-Predictive Variance Decomposition for Epistemic and Aleatoric Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting

    May 21, 2026Yinsong Chen, Samson S. Yu, Kashem M. MuttaqiOffshore Wind TurbinePredictive Uncertainty

    School of Engineering, Deakin University, Melbourne, VIC 3216, Australia · ARC Training Centre in Energy Technologies for Future Grids, School of Engineering, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia

  19. Mind the Sim-to-Real Gap & Think Like a Scientist

    May 20, 2026Harsh Parikh, Gabriel Levin-Konigsberg, Dominique Perrault-Joncas +1Simulation-Based Reinforcement LearningSim-To-Real Gap

    Amazon SCOT, Seattle, USA · Yale University, New Haven, USA · Duke University, Durham, USA

  20. Self-Supervised Laplace Approximation for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

    May 12, 2026Julian Rodemann, Alexander Marquard, Thomas Augustin +1Bayesian Neural NetworksPosterior Predictive Distribution

    Rational Intelligence Lab, CISPA Helmholtz Center for Information Security · Department of Statistics, LMU Munich · Department of Computer Science, The University of Manchester

  21. Decoupled PFNs: Identifiable Epistemic-Aleatoric Decomposition via Structured Synthetic Priors

    May 7, 2026Richard Bergna, Stefan Depeweg, José Miguel Hernández-LobatoPosterior Predictive DistributionTabular Prior-Data Fitted Network

    University of Cambridge · 2Siemens AG

  22. Amortized Variational Inference for Joint Posterior and Predictive Distributions in Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

    May 5, 2026Nan Feng, Xun HuanVariational InferencePosterior Predictive Distribution

    Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States

  23. Possibilistic Predictive Uncertainty for Deep Learning

    May 1, 2026Yao Ni, Jeremie Houssineau, Yew-Soon Ong +1Predictive UncertaintyPosterior Predictive Distribution

    Nanyang Technological University · A*STAR · The University of New South Wales +1

  24. Calibeating Prediction-Powered Inference

    Apr 23, 2026Lars van der Laan, Mark Van Der LaanPosterior Predictive DistributionImportance Weighting

    Department of Statistics, University of Washington · Department of Statistics and Division of Biostatistics, Center for Targeted Machine Learning and Causal Inference, University of California, Berkeley

  25. Learning Posterior Predictive Distributions for Node Classification from Synthetic Graph Priors

    Apr 21, 2026Jeongwhan Choi, Jongwoo Kim, Woosung Kang +1Graph Neural NetworksGraph Representations

    KAIST Daejeon, Republic of Korea

  26. Agentic Forecasting with Structured Linguistic Beliefs

    Apr 20, 2026Kevin MurphyLarge Language Model ForecastingData-Driven Forecasting

    Department of Computer Science University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC, Canada

  27. LLMs are Bayesian, In Expectation, Not in Realization

    Jul 15, 2025Leon Chlon, Fatima Sheaib, Zein Khamis +3Posterior Predictive DistributionIn-Context Learning

    Hassana Labs · Harvard University

  28. Predictions as Surrogates: Revisiting Surrogate Outcomes in the Age of AI

    Jan 16, 2025Wenlong Ji, Lihua Lei, Tijana ZrnicMachine Learning SurrogatesPosterior Predictive Distribution

    Stanford University

  29. Predictive variational inference: Learn the predictively optimal posterior distribution

    Oct 18, 2024Jinlin Lai, Antonio Linero, Yuling YaoPosterior Predictive DistributionVariational Inference

    College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst · Department of Statistics and Data Sciences, University of Texas, Austin